Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.91-3.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.28 → 0.29 EPS · FY ending Dec 28, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RRGB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Capex between $25M and $30M for fiscal 2026 | A supporting condition in Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc's published investment case. The stated target is $25M to $30M. | Intact | Capex exceeds $30M or falls below $25M in FY26 | Capital expenditures: $4.799M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $25M to $30M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 20264,799,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-28 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk restructuring and operational-improvement story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: execution shows progress, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and earnings quality is loss-making.
The valuation evidence points to RRGB being cheap versus peers, but confidence in that comparison is low. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests the market’s assumptions may still be demanding relative to the evidence; the priced-in signal is labeled justified, with low fragility.
Near term, restaurant-level operating income rose from the first to the second quarter, while the margin stayed close to 15%; quarterly revenue was lower. Refranchising has advanced, with 108 restaurant sales completed and eight more expected, but guidance cuts are a meaningful risk, and the next earnings report warrants attention given erratic surprises.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on completing refranchising, strengthening the balance sheet, and sustaining operational improvement. Near term, reaffirmed guidance must hold; sector signals from MCD, SBUX, and YUM could also support or weaken the broader backdrop.
RRGB has made concrete progress on refranchising and restaurant operations, but losses, volatile execution, and high risk leave the 1 to 3 year thesis uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain restaurant level operating profit at 13% |
| It aims to keep restaurant profit at 13%. |
| Improving |
| Operating profit margin falls below 12% in FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $71.5M in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~$71.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $70M in FY26 | Revenue: $277.641M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$71.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 12, 2026277,641,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.11 → $0.29 · observed estimates
$1.13B → $1.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.11 | $1,131,726,500 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.28 | $1,134,256,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.29 | $1,135,056,333 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.