Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$8.47+2.92%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RRGB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -78.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -6.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 71.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RRGB — credit agreement
Dated 2026-09-01
The information in this Item 7.01, including the information set forth in Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as 1 amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly…
Why it matters: These deals help Red Robin manage its money better and lower debt.
Supportive ifAll 116 refranchising deals close, bringing in $96 million in gross proceeds.
Worry ifAny refranchising deal fails to close or has big delays.
Why it matters: Closing these deals will strengthen Red Robin's financial position and support its First Choice Plan.
Supportive ifAll refranchising agreements close as planned by the end of 2026.
Worry ifAny refranchising agreements fail to close by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: This shows if Red Robin can stay profitable during tough times.
Watch forOperating profit margin is over 14% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forOperating profit margin is below 13% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cost control and better operations.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA reaches at least $70 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA falls below $70 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: This will show if Red Robin is investing enough to support its growth plans.
Watch forCapital spending is between $25 million and $30 million for fiscal 2026.
Also watch forCapital spending is below $25 million for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Stable restaurant revenue shows more guests and better operations. This is key for Red Robin's recovery.
Supportive ifRestaurant revenue growth stays above 1.5% next quarter.
Worry ifRestaurant revenue drops below 0.5% next quarter.
Why it matters: The sale of 8 restaurants will bring in $96 million. This helps Red Robin pay off debt.
Supportive ifThe last 8 restaurants will close and earn $6.6 million.
Worry ifThe remaining 8 restaurants do not close by fiscal year-end.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well the company operates and makes money. A drop could mean bigger problems.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is more than $18.9 million. This shows stronger operations.
Less concerning ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA is less than $18.9 million. This shows ongoing problems.
Why it matters: Maintaining profit at this level is key for the company's financial health. It shows how well the company controls costs and manages operations.
Supportive ifQ2 restaurant profit is 13% or more.
Worry ifQ2 restaurant profit is less than 13%.
Why it matters: Staying within this range shows effective capital management. It affects future growth potential.
Supportive ifQ2 capex spending reported between $25M and $30M.
Worry ifQ2 capex spending reported below $25M or above $30M.
Why it matters: Keeping the margin above 13% shows good cost control. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifProfit margin stays above 13% next quarter.
Worry ifProfit margin falls below 13% next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$279 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $681 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,505 loss on $10,000 · 65.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.