Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc (RRGB)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.91-3.57%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RRGB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 68.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 11 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RRGB — officer change
Dated 2026-10-27
Director — James C. Pappas and Christopher Martin: Two directors resigned simultaneously to reduce board size, which is a structural change rather than a routine annual election or a single executive departure.
Why it matters: Red Robin kept its full-year EBITDA range after reporting lower EBITDA in Q2. The year-end result will test that outlook.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands within or above the $70 million to $73 million range.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA falls below $70 million, or the company cuts the range.
Why it matters: Red Robin replaced its old loan with a five-year credit facility at lower borrowing costs. Future filings can show whether debt costs fall.
Supportive ifThe next results report shows lower interest expense than in the same period a year earlier. The new facility is in place.
Worry ifThe company reports higher interest costs than last year, new pressure on covenants, or trouble paying debt.
Why it matters: The sales bring in cash and cut debt. The October update said 108 sales were done, with eight more still due.
Supportive ifA company filing confirms all eight remaining restaurant sales have closed. It states the proceeds received.
Worry ifA filing reports a delay, cancellation, or cut in the sale of any of the eight restaurants left.
Why it matters: Red Robin raised comparable sales from -0.6% in Q1 to 1.3% in Q2. Q3 results test whether that growth continues.
Supportive ifOn November 4, Q3 comparable sales are at least 0.5%, with guest traffic no worse than flat year over year.
Worry ifQ3 comparable sales are below 0.5%, or guest traffic falls more than 1% year over year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$240 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $683 loss on $10,000 · 6.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,851 loss on $10,000 · 48.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.