Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Regal Rexnord (RRX)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$173.38-3.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
12.92 → 12.68 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RRX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $0.35 per share | The company keeps paying a $0.35 dividend per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.35 | Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share = $0.35. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RRX is an industrial growth and execution thesis, with robust earnings quality and recent order growth supporting the business. The long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased to medium and risk is elevated.
The evidence describes RRX as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 45% premium versus peers and an expectations gap of -0.49, so valuation signals are mixed. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with low fragility, meaning the evidence does not flag concentrated expectations risk.
Near term, enterprise daily order growth accelerated from 8.5% in the first quarter of 2026 to 8.8% in the second, while operating income was higher in the second quarter than a year earlier. Management has maintained growth priorities, but margin delivery is mixed, the sector backdrop is a headwind, and a guidance cut on the next call is a key risk.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on continued order growth and management’s ability to protect operating income and margins. Strong results and guidance from industrial bellwethers could support the sector backdrop, while their misses or lower guidance could remove that support; RRX guidance itself is another important swing factor.
For the 1-to-3-year view, the business case remains intact, but mixed valuation signals, elevated risk, and a headwind from the sector make execution and peer results important. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Regal Rexnord's published investment case. The stated target is >=11.7% YoY revenue growth. |
| Broken |
| YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year |
Revenue growth: 6.08% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=11.7% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20266.078824 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS around $10.6 in fiscal 2026 | A primary condition in Regal Rexnord's published investment case. The stated target is EPS ~10.6 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $9.5 in fiscal 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-0.19 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS ~10.6 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Nov 3, 2026-0.19 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Improve or maintain operating income near $153M | A supporting condition in Regal Rexnord's published investment case. The stated target is Operating income >= $153 million. | Under Pressure | Operating income falls below $150 million | Operating income: $81.4M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= $153 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202681,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We also have line of sight to higher margins and free cash flow as the year unfolds, aided by stronger volumes, improving mix, achieving margin neutrality on tariffs, and synergies."” “Our outlook also now reflects a longer timeline to realize planned productivity gains, in some cases to prioritize service levels.” Operating income was $81.400 million in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$13.49 → $12.68 · observed estimates
$7.07B → $7.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $13.49 | $7,072,423,229 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $13.49 | $7,072,419,210 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $13.49 | $7,072,419,210 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $13.49 | $7,072,419,210 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $13.51 | $7,084,330,933 | 6 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $13.51 | $7,084,327,280 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $13.51 | $7,084,327,280 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $13.51 | $7,084,327,280 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $13.51 | $7,084,330,933 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $13.51 | $7,084,330,933 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $13.51 | $7,084,330,933 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $13.51 | $7,084,293,845 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $13.51 | $7,084,327,280 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $13.51 | $7,084,327,280 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $13.14 | $7,069,954,140 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $13.11 | $7,071,499,600 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $13.11 | $7,071,499,600 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $13.19 | $7,065,673,560 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $13.11 | $7,071,526,198 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $13.11 | $7,071,526,198 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $12.99 | $7,066,746,433 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $12.96 | $7,084,246,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $12.92 | $7,079,146,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $12.92 | $7,079,146,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $12.92 | $7,079,146,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $12.92 | $7,079,146,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $12.92 | $7,079,146,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $12.89 | $7,079,146,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $12.88 | $7,075,446,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $12.88 | $7,075,446,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $12.88 | $7,075,446,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $12.88 | $7,075,446,433 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $12.81 | $7,064,278,818 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $12.81 | $7,064,278,818 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $12.80 | $7,060,355,416 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $12.68 | $7,024,609,540 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.