Regal Rexnord (RRX)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$162.86+0.15%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RRX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -38.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 12.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RRX — President transition
Dated 2026-06-01
Executive Vice President & President, Industrial Powertrain Solutions — Jerry Morton: Jerry Morton is retiring and being succeeded by Mark Klossner.
Why it matters: Regal Rexnord is making more money. This is due to lower operating costs.
Supportive ifOperating income was over $160 million in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income was under $150 million in Q2.
Why it matters: The dividend is $0.35. This shows the company is stable. It also shows they care about shareholders.
Worry ifThe company reaffirms its commitment to maintain the dividend at $0.35 per share.
Less concerning ifThe company announces a cut to the dividend payout.
Why it matters: A clear strategy from the new CEO can impact future growth and stability. Investors will look for direction.
Watch forA public announcement will explain the new CEO's plan.
Also watch forNo clear strategy is communicated by the new CEO within three months.
Why it matters: Aamir Paul's plans could change how the company grows and operates.
Watch forAamir Paul shares specific growth plans within three months of starting.
Also watch forNo major plans are shared within three months of Aamir Paul's start.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$185 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $504 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,408 loss on $10,000 · 34.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Klossner's leadership may boost growth in Industrial Powertrain Solutions. His experience can make things more efficient.
Watch forIPS shows improved sales growth and margins under Klossner's leadership.
Also watch forIPS performance is falling or not improving. This shows a weak leadership change.
Why it matters: Strong AMC orders mean high demand in important markets like aerospace and data centers.
Supportive ifAMC orders growth reported above 30% year over year.
Worry ifAMC orders growth reported below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A smooth leadership change can improve stability and direction. It helps keep the IPS segment moving forward.
Watch forMark Klossner puts strategic plans into action in IPS within six months.
Also watch forLeadership change causes problems or drops in IPS performance.
Why it matters: Inflation affects margins and profits. Watching this helps us see how strong operations are.
Worry ifMargins stay stable even with inflation in Q3.
Less concerning ifMargins drop a lot because of inflation. This shows there are operational challenges.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows strong cash flow and support for shareholders.
Supportive ifRegal Rexnord declares a dividend of $0.35 per share for the next quarter.
Worry ifRegal Rexnord reduces the dividend below $0.35 per share.
Why it matters: Strong earnings growth shows good execution. It also means market demand is recovering.
Supportive ifQ2 earnings show growth exceeding 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 earnings growth is 5% or less compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Steady growth in operating income shows good cost control and efficiency. It helps overall profits.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up year over year for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifOperating income goes down year over year for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: Faster sales growth shows the company has strong orders and market demand.
Supportive ifQ2 organic sales growth reported above 5% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 organic sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in Industrial Powertrain Solutions (IPS) is key to overall revenue growth.
Supportive ifIPS orders increase by more than 5% compared to Q1.
Worry ifIPS orders decline or grow less than 2% compared to Q1.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows good leadership change and market demand.
Supportive ifIndustrial Powertrain Solutions revenue grows more than 5% each year.
Worry ifIndustrial Powertrain Solutions revenue grows less than 5% each year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company maintains growth momentum after Q1.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forQ2 earnings report shows revenue growth below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Backlog growth shows strong future sales and demand for the business.
Supportive ifBacklog increases by more than 6.7% sequentially in Q2.
Worry ifBacklog growth is less than 6.7% sequentially in Q2.
Why it matters: Comments on Aamir Paul's leadership show how Regal Rexnord adapts to new plans.
Watch forGood market response or analyst upgrades after the CEO change.
Also watch forBad market response or analyst downgrades after the CEO change.
Why it matters: Higher daily orders growth would show continued strong demand and support sales growth plans.
Supportive ifDaily orders growth exceeds 8.8% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDaily orders growth falls below 8.5% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Stable EPS guidance shows confidence in making money and running the business well.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS guidance remains within the range of $10.35 to $10.85 for 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS guidance is lowered below $10.35 for 2026.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs. This helps run the business more efficiently.
Supportive ifIPS adjusted EBITDA margin improves beyond 25% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifIPS adjusted EBITDA margin falls below 25% in Q3 2026.