RTX Corporation (RTX)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
$198.43-2.64%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 7.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RTX — President transition
Dated 2026-09-15
President — Shane Eddy: The President of a major division is retiring with a named internal successor, representing an orderly succession rather than a sudden loss of leadership.
Why it matters: Pratt & Whitney sales growth came from commercial aftermarket work, while new engine sales fell. A slowdown in aftermarket growth could weaken that support.
Worry ifPratt & Whitney commercial aftermarket sales grow less than 10% year over year in Q4.
Less concerning ifPratt & Whitney commercial aftermarket sales grow at least 10% year over year in Q4.
Why it matters: RTX raised its 2026 sales and free cash flow ranges after strong Q3 results. Meeting them would back its growth and backlog delivery story.
Supportive ifFull-year adjusted sales reach at least $97.0 billion and free cash flow reaches at least $9.0 billion.
Worry ifRTX cuts either 2026 range, or reports adjusted sales below $97.0 billion or free cash flow below $9.0 billion.
Why it matters: Q3 free cash flow fell 47% year over year, even as RTX raised its full-year cash goal. The next result will show whether cash generation is back on track.
Watch forFull-year free cash flow reaches at least $9.0 billion, within RTX's raised range.
Also watch forFull-year free cash flow falls below $9.0 billion or RTX cuts its $9.0 billion floor.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$69 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $258 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,006 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.