RTX Corporation (RTX)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
$200.79-0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RTX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 6.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 55 industry peers
RTX — director transition
Dated 2026-03-05
Director — James A. Winnefeld Jr.: Mr. Winnefeld resigned as a director of the Company.
Why it matters: If adjusted EPS is over $1.89, it shows strong performance. This is good for growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported above $1.89 in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS reported below $1.89 in Q3.
Why it matters: A rise in adjusted EPS guidance shows strong performance and growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance to more than $7.25 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifManagement keeps adjusted EPS guidance below $7.10 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Backlog changes show how much money they might make in aerospace and defense.
Supportive ifCompany backlog increases to over $300 billion in Q3 2026.
Worry ifCompany backlog drops below $280 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: An increase in revenue guidance would show strong growth momentum for RTX.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for Q2 by more than 5%.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: Backlog growth means strong future sales. It shows ongoing demand in commercial and defense.
Supportive ifBacklog growth is over 22% compared to last year.
Worry ifBacklog growth is below 22% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Sales growth rate shows demand and market position in aerospace and defense.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 sales growth rate exceeds 14% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 2026 sales growth rate falls below 10% year-over-year.
Why it matters: An increase shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifManagement expects revenue in 2026 to be more than $93.5 billion.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers revenue guidance for 2026.
Why it matters: A rebound in sector growth could benefit RTX's revenue and market position.
Watch for3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector speeds up above 8%.
Also watch for3-year revenue growth in the industrials sector slows below 4%.
Why it matters: Free cash flow above $8.50 billion shows strong cash generation. This is key for funding growth and returning value to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported above $8.50 billion.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $8.50 billion.
Why it matters: Stable or rising guidance shows strong cash flow and financial health.
Supportive ifManagement confirms or raises Q3 free cash flow guidance above $8.50 billion.
Worry ifManagement lowers Q3 free cash flow guidance below $8.50 billion.
Why it matters: New awards signal strong demand and support revenue growth, impacting long-term outlook.
Supportive ifRTX announces new awards totaling over $30 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifNew awards fall below $20 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher organic sales growth shows strong demand in the market. This shows good execution.
Supportive ifQ3 organic sales growth is above 8%.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth is below 8%.
Why it matters: If RTX keeps its sales guidance above $95 billion, it shows strong demand and execution. This supports the growth narrative.
Supportive ifRTX maintains Q3 adjusted sales guidance above $95 billion.
Worry ifRTX lowers Q3 adjusted sales guidance below $95 billion.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog means strong future revenue and demand.
Supportive ifBacklog reported is over $289 billion.
Worry ifBacklog reported falls below $289 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $274 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,965 loss on $10,000 · 19.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.