Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
RXO, Inc. (RXO)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$27.88-1.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.62 → 0.65 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for RXO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS turns positive and grows | A supporting condition in RXO, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.07 in FY2026 and >= $0.51 in FY2027. | Improving | EPS falls below $0.07 in FY2026 or below $0.51 in FY2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
RXO is a cyclical freight brokerage and logistics business, so its results depend partly on industry conditions. The multi-year view is on watch: recent operating results improved, but performance remains below its industry cohort and the evidence is mixed.
The valuation evidence is mixed: RXO is tagged as stretched, while one comparison describes it as cheap versus peers. The model also shows a 47% peer premium and a 22% expectations gap, but confidence in those estimates is low, so the exact expectations already reflected in valuation are uncertain.
Near term, management has delivered stronger Brokerage volume and gross profit per load, while adjusted EBITDA and operating income also improved year over year. Complementary services show mixed progress, and the sector is a headwind; the next guidance update and recent history of earnings misses remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued improvement in Brokerage profitability and growth in complementary services. Near term, a guidance cut would weaken the case, while results and guidance from ODFL, XPO, and KNX may signal whether sector conditions are improving or worsening.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, RXO’s improving operating indicators support the thesis, but elevated risk, mixed execution, and a recent loss of company momentum leave the evidence unsettled. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in RXO, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Gross margin >= 12% next fiscal year. |
| Intact |
| Gross margin falls below 12% in FY2025 |
Gross margin: 14.7% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Gross margin >= 12% next fiscal year. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 202614.698022 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves toward break-even | RXO is improving its operating income, reducing losses from -$30M to -$28M in Q1 2026. | Improving | Operating income falls below -$28M next 4 quarters | Operating income: $17M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income >= -$28M in next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 202617,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows beyond $1.4 billion per quarter | The company aims to grow revenue beyond $1.4 billion per quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.425B per quarter next 4 quarters | Revenue: $1.871B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $1.425B per quarter next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20261,871,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.53 → $0.65 · observed estimates
$6.89B → $7.71B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.53 | $6,885,762,600 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.53 | $6,885,762,600 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.53 | $6,885,762,600 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.53 | $6,885,762,600 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.53 | $6,885,762,600 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,870 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,870 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,870 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,870 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.56 | $7,238,343,920 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.56 | $7,238,343,920 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.56 | $7,238,343,920 | 19 / 19 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.61 | $7,496,916,420 | 20 / 19 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.54 | $6,896,867,868 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.61 | $7,464,667,695 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.62 | $7,472,175,411 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.62 | $7,482,385,937 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.62 | $7,484,263,639 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.62 | $7,484,263,639 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.62 | $7,536,575,879 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.63 | $7,536,723,505 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.64 | $7,541,212,979 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.64 | $7,542,791,926 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.64 | $7,542,791,926 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.64 | $7,545,003,084 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.64 | $7,545,003,084 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.64 | $7,545,003,084 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.64 | $7,545,003,084 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.64 | $7,545,003,084 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.65 | $7,545,743,400 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.65 | $7,575,420,376 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.65 | $7,618,562,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.65 | $7,618,562,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.65 | $7,618,562,234 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.66 | $7,701,520,650 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.65 | $7,706,570,992 | 12 / 14 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.65 | $7,706,570,992 | 12 / 14 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 15 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 3 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.