RXO, Inc. (RXO)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.66+3.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RXO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -30.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 16.6% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RXO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-07
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, RXO, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Why it matters: Gaining market share shows RXO's strong position and effective growth strategy.
Supportive ifBrokerage segment reports increased market share in Q3.
Worry ifBrokerage segment reports flat or declining market share in Q3.
Why it matters: Successful completion will provide RXO with funds to improve its financial position and pay down debt.
Supportive ifThe company completed the offering and paid back the 2027 Notes.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close, delaying the redemption of the 2027 Notes.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows RXO is controlling costs and making cash.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is positive in the second quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is negative in the second quarter.
Why it matters: Better revenue growth shows RXO is doing a good job. This is important for recovery.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds $1.43B, showing improvement from Q1.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is still below $1.43B. This shows RXO is still struggling.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$255 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $700 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,307 loss on $10,000 · 43.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: An increase in gross profit per load shows RXO is managing costs well and improving margins.
Supportive ifQ3 gross profit per load increases compared to Q2.
Worry ifQ3 gross profit per load decreases compared to Q2.
Why it matters: An increase in operating income would show RXO is managing costs better. This is crucial for long-term health.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from -$28M in Q1 to better than -$20M in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income worsens beyond -$28M in Q2, showing deeper issues.
Why it matters: Higher contract rates suggest RXO is improving its pricing power in a tough market. This could boost revenue.
Supportive ifContract rates are up more than 8% compared to last year.
Worry ifContract rates are up less than 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Flat volume shows RXO can keep its business steady during tough times.
Watch forFull truckload volume reported flat year-over-year in Q2.
Also watch forFull truckload volume shows a decline year-over-year in Q2.
Why it matters: Higher profit would support management's claims of good trends in the business.
Supportive ifSecond-quarter profit is much higher than in the first quarter.
Worry ifSecond-quarter profit is lower or about the same as the first quarter.
Why it matters: A growing sales pipeline indicates RXO's potential for future revenue growth. It shows market demand for their services.
Supportive ifLate-stage sales pipeline is said to grow by over $200 million.
Worry ifLate-stage sales pipeline is said to decrease or grow less than $200 million.
Why it matters: Successful redemption shows RXO can manage debt. This affects financial stability and future work.
Supportive ifRXO completes the redemption of the 2027 Notes as planned.
Worry ifRXO cancels the redemption due to not meeting financing conditions.
Why it matters: This growth shows RXO can keep its momentum in Brokerage. It means the company is gaining market share and making more money.
Supportive ifBrokerage volume growth in Q3 exceeds 5% year over year.
Worry ifBrokerage volume growth in Q3 is below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows RXO is making more money and controlling costs well. It shows the company's strength.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is reported at $45 million or higher.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 is below $35 million.
Why it matters: More Last Mile stops show RXO is recovering in extra services. It means the company is getting back market share.
Supportive ifLast Mile stops growth is reported at 3% or higher year over year.
Worry ifLast Mile stops decline year over year.
Why it matters: A large change in the PPI could impact RXO's costs and pricing strategies. It may affect overall profitability and market conditions.
Watch forPPI shows a month-over-month increase greater than 0.5%.
Also watch forPPI shows a month-over-month decrease greater than -0.5%.