RXO, Inc. (RXO)
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
$27.88-1.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsTruckingSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · RXO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 38.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 22.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
RXO — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-29
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 29, 2026 , RXO, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its results of operations for the fiscal quarter ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information furnished in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or…
Why it matters: Q3 truckload volume rose 3% year over year, and gross profit per load rose sharply from Q2. A reversal would weaken this recent progress.
Supportive ifThe next reported quarter shows truckload volume above the prior-year level and gross profit per load above Q3.
Worry ifThe next reported quarter shows truckload volume below the prior-year level or gross profit per load below Q3.
Why it matters: Q3 adjusted EBITDA rose from $32 million a year earlier, but current quality signals remain weak. A lower result would reverse the reported gain.
Supportive ifRXO reports adjusted EBITDA above $51 million in its next quarter.
Worry ifRXO reports adjusted EBITDA below $51 million in its next quarter.
Why it matters: The deal needs RXO shareholder and regulator approval. A close would complete the announced sale; a delay or failed vote would put it at risk.
Supportive ifRXO shareholders and regulators approve the deal, and the merger closes by June 30, 2027.
Worry ifRXO shareholders or regulators reject the deal. Or the deal is still open after June 30, 2027.
Why it matters: Managed Transportation awards and Last Mile growth show demand beyond brokerage. Continued growth would support this expansion.
Supportive ifManaged Transportation reports more freight under management than Q3's $140 million in awards. Last Mile stops rise year over year.
Worry ifManaged Transportation reports no new freight awards. Or Last Mile stops fall below the prior-year level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$160 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $652 loss on $10,000 · 6.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,052 loss on $10,000 · 40.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.