Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sachem Capital Corp (SACH)
AMEXReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.81-0.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
AMEXReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SACH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $0.03 per share | The company recently beat EPS guidance with $0.03 per share for 2025. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.01 in FY25 | Diluted EPS: $-0.14 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.03 EPS in FY25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026-0.14 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making real estate finance business rather than a durable compounder. Its long-term thesis is on watch: management is working through legacy loan issues and a major combination, but recent performance remains weak.
The valuation evidence describes SACH as cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is small. That suggests limited room between current expectations and the model’s view, but confidence in the valuation measure is low, so the relative discount alone does not settle the thesis.
Near term, recent earnings misses and a 19.6-point drop in company momentum point to continued operating pressure. Net losses persisted in both 2026-Q1 and Q2, while net interest income declined; another earnings miss or weaker guidance is a clear risk. Over the multi-year view, completing the Industrial Realty Group combination could reshape the business, but it has not closed.
The central swing factor is whether the pending combination is completed and whether management can improve results while resolving legacy loan issues. Near term, rate cuts could support the real estate sector, while weaker sector results or a guidance cut would remove support and add pressure to the thesis.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SACH’s thesis depends on strategic execution and a turn in operating performance, with elevated near-term earnings risk and low confidence in the valuation evidence. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Its free cash flow yield is 7%, showing some cash generation potential. |
| Broken |
| FCF yield falls below 3% |
Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth from new industrial REIT assets | It aims to build a new industrial REIT, which could boost future revenue. | Intact | revenue falls below $38M in FY26 | Revenue: $9.357M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $44.6M total revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 20269,357,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.08 → $-0.05 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.08 | $35,628,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.08 | $35,195,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.05 | $22,007,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.05 | $21,141,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.