Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$104.36+0.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
6.75 → 6.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SAFT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Strong free cash flow yield | The company generates strong free cash flow with a 15% yield. | Broken | Free cash flow yield falls below 12% over next year | Free cash flow yield: 11.57% As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202611.57 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SAFT is an insurance business with a measured growth profile, supported by rate actions and underwriting discipline. Its long-term thesis is watchful rather than broken: management execution has improved, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: SAFT is described as cheap versus peers, yet its premium versus peers is high and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in tag is justified, with low fragility because weak execution quality is not combined with the full expensive, weak, and turbulent risk stack.
Near-term, net earned premiums have grown from $269.1 million in 2024-Q4 to $291.7 million in 2026-Q2, while management remains on track with rate actions and underwriting discipline. Dividend payments have continued, but recent financial performance is neutral and below the industry cohort; guidance cuts or rate reductions would add risk. The Mapfre merger is expected to close in Q1 2027 pending approvals, and its financial contribution is not yet known.
The multi-year view depends on continued premium growth, disciplined underwriting, and completion of the Mapfre merger. Near-term, a guidance cut or Fed rate cuts would be unfavorable, while strong earnings and higher guidance from sector peers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SAFT has credible operating priorities and a pending growth-platform merger, but the expensive value assessment, fragile earnings quality, and below-cohort performance call for continued attention to execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Net earned premiums increase through rate actions |
| Safety Insurance grows premiums by about 7% yearly through rate increases. |
| Broken |
| YoY net earned premiums growth falls below 6% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “The combined ratio of 95.7% reflects the impact of our underwriting discipline and ongoing pricing strategy.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Sustained positive earnings per share | A primary condition in Safety Insurance Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $5.33 for fiscal year 2025. | Broken | EPS falls below $5.33 in fiscal year 2025 | Diluted EPS: $2.36 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $5.33 for fiscal year 2025. Target period ends 2025-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 7, 20262.36 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$6.75 → $6.75 · observed estimates
$1.53B → $1.53B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.75 | $1,528,408,450 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.