Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
$104.35+0.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAFT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 56.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SAFT — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-23
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Additional Information and Where to Find It In connection with the proposed transaction, the Company plans to file a proxy statement with the SEC with respect…
Why it matters: Safety has kept its quarterly dividend at $0.92. The merger agreement also limits capital returns, so a change would signal a shift.
Watch forSafety declares a next quarterly dividend of $0.92 per share or more.
Also watch forSafety declares a next quarterly dividend below $0.92 per share or says it will not pay one.
Why it matters: The first half combined ratio was 104.5%, after severe winter losses. A ratio above 100% means claims and costs exceeded earned premiums.
Worry ifThe November 2 results show a Q3 combined ratio above 100%.
Less concerning ifThe November 2 results show a Q3 combined ratio below 100%.
Why it matters: Private auto policies fell 8.8% and homeowners policies fell 4.0% in the first half. Continued losses could weigh on future premium growth.
Worry ifThe next results show private auto policy count down at least 8.8% year over year, or homeowners down at least 4.0%.
Less concerning ifThe next results show private auto policy count down less than 8.8% and homeowners down less than 4.0%, or either line grows.
Why it matters: Rate increases lifted earned premiums, even as written premiums fell. Growth above 3% would show those rate actions still reaching reported revenue.
Supportive ifQ3 net earned premiums rise more than 3% from the year-earlier quarter.
Worry ifQ3 net earned premiums rise 3% or less, or fall, from the year-earlier quarter.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$11 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $190 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,420 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.