Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
$103.15+0.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsInsurance - Property & CasualtySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAFT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 13.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 34 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SAFT — litigation filed
Dated 2026-07-23
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, will not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 or incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933 or the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Additional Information and Where to Find It In connection with the proposed transaction, the Company plans to file a proxy statement with the SEC with respect…
Why it matters: Severe weather can greatly affect claims and combined ratios. Watching this helps find risks.
Worry ifThe combined ratio for Q3 2026 is below 100%. This shows good management of weather effects.
Less concerning ifThe combined ratio for Q3 2026 is over 100%. This shows severe weather hurt results.
Why it matters: A higher combined ratio means worse underwriting performance. This hurts profits.
Worry ifCombined ratio exceeds 113.4% in Q2 2026 due to ongoing weather impacts.
Less concerning ifCombined ratio improves and falls below 110% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Paying dividends shows that a company is stable. It also shows that management cares about shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays a dividend of at least $0.92 per share in Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company reduces or suspends the dividend payment in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Severe weather can greatly impact claims and losses. This affects financial results.
Worry ifQ3 2026 losses and loss adjustment expenses increase by more than 10% due to weather events.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 losses and loss adjustment expenses remain stable or decrease.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$37 on $10,000 · ±0.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $196 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,420 loss on $10,000 · 14.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in net earned premiums shows good pricing strategies. It also shows strong underwriting discipline.
Supportive ifNet earned premiums increase year over year by more than 3% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet earned premiums decline or grow less than 1% year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The merger is a key growth strategy. It aims to enhance Safety's market position and resources.
Supportive ifThe merger will close by the end of Q1 2027. All regulatory approvals are secured.
Worry ifThe merger is delayed. It may fail to get the necessary regulatory approvals.
Why it matters: Severe weather events hurt Q1 results. Future claims will show if this continues.
Worry ifClaims from severe weather events do not exceed $30 million in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifClaims from severe weather events exceed $30 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a change in the financial sector's stability.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.