Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp
Science Applications Intl Corp (SAIC)
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$150.45-0.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.48 → 11.49 EPS · FY ending Jan 30, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SAIC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend at $0.37 per share | The dividend is stable at $0.37 per share. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.37 | Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 0.37 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 31, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 3, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SAIC is a government-services business with a value-oriented profile and recent operating momentum. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and management execution has been volatile.
SAIC is tagged as cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence points to a modest gap rather than strongly favorable expectations.
Recent financial performance is strong: revenue and adjusted operating margin improved across the reported comparison, and the company recently reported an earnings beat. Near term, momentum has weakened and a CFO transition adds uncertainty; free cash flow remains below management’s stated goal, while the sector backdrop is a headwind.
The multi-year view depends on management sustaining growth and margin progress while moving free cash flow above its stated goal. A reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt credibility, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SAIC’s thesis rests on continued operating progress and stronger cash generation, with management credibility and sector conditions as key risks. The thesis is intact, but execution evidence remains mixed. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “SAIC intends to continue paying dividends on a quarterly basis, although the declaration of any future dividends will be determined by the Board of Directors each quarter and will depend on earnings, financial condition, capital requirements and other factors.” “SAIC intends to continue paying dividends on a quarterly basis, although the declaration of any future dividends will be determined by the Board of Directors each quarter and will depend on earnings, financial condition, capital requirements and other factors.”
Free cash flow above $600 million in fiscal 2027 | Free cash flow is targeted above $600 million, supporting capital returns. | Intact | Free cash flow falls below $600 million in fiscal 2027 | Free cash flow: $131M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >600 USD_MILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 31, 2026131,000,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable and effective management team | A supporting condition in Science Applications Intl Corp's published investment case. The stated target is No major executive departures or disruptions. | Intact | Significant executive departures or leadership instability | No major departures; 1 planned CFO transition CFO transition to external hire noted; no other executive departures or leadership disruptions identified in recent news. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Fiscal year 2027 revenue between $7.0B and $7.2B | A primary condition in Science Applications Intl Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.0 USD_BILLIONS. | Intact | Fiscal year 2027 revenue falls below $7.0 billion | Revenue: $1.88B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.0 USD_BILLIONS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 31, 20261,880,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.00 → $11.49 · observed estimates
$7.27B → $7.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,144 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.00 | $7,271,129,989 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.08 | $7,314,576,650 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.31 | $7,361,234,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.31 | $7,361,234,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.31 | $7,361,234,833 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.39 | $7,378,475,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.39 | $7,378,475,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.39 | $7,378,475,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.39 | $7,378,475,850 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.48 | $7,397,157,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.48 | $7,397,157,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.48 | $7,397,157,294 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.48 | $7,397,157,983 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,794 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,794 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,794 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,794 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.48 | $7,397,159,106 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.49 | $7,398,328,550 | 6 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.