Science Applications Intl Corp (SAIC)
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$126.75+0.20%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SAIC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 38 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SAIC — government funding
Dated 2026-08-19
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On August 14, 2026, Science Applications International Corporation (the "Company") entered into Amendment No.6 (the "Amendment") to the Master Accounts Receivable Purchase Agreement (the "Existing Purchase Agreement"), among the Company, as a seller and seller representative, and MUFG Bank, Ltd., as purchaser (the "Purchaser"). The current Amendment allows for the sale of up to $400 million of certain designated eligible receivables with the U.S. gov…
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend at $0.37 per share shows strong finances and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company confirms the dividend payment of $0.37 per share on July 24, 2026.
Worry ifThe company plans to cut or stop the dividend payment.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit SAIC's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher margin would show strong cost control and improved profitability. This supports long-term growth goals.
Supportive ifThe adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 is over 10.3%.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 falls below 10.1%.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows strong cash generation, which supports growth and dividends.
Supportive ifSAIC reports free cash flow greater than $600 million in fiscal year 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow falls below $600 million for fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good cash flow. This helps with dividends and investments.
Supportive ifFree cash flow for FY 2027 exceeds $600 million.
Worry ifFree cash flow for FY 2027 falls below $500 million.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that the company wants to give cash back to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe dividend is paid as scheduled without any cuts or changes.
Worry ifThe company says it will cut or stop the dividend.
Why it matters: Winning new contracts in this sector indicates strong demand and supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifSAIC announces new contract awards totaling over $1 billion in the U.S. Space and Intelligence Community.
Worry ifSAIC fails to secure significant new contracts in the U.S. Space and Intelligence Community.
Why it matters: The company has set revenue guidance between $7.0 billion and $7.2 billion. This is key for growth expectations.
Watch forFiscal year 2027 revenue confirmed within the guided range of $7.0 billion to $7.2 billion.
Also watch forRevenue guidance is now below $7.0 billion.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below 2% would signal challenges in meeting future guidance. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifQ1 fiscal year 2027 revenue growth reported below 2%.
Less concerning ifQ1 fiscal year 2027 revenue growth reported at or above 2%.
Why it matters: A drop in bookings may show trouble getting new contracts. This can hurt future income.
Worry ifNet bookings in Q3 reported below $1.2 billion.
Less concerning ifNet bookings in Q3 exceed $1.2 billion.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It also shows a commitment to capital use, which can help the share price.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a dividend of $0.37 per share.
Worry ifThe Board reduces the dividend below $0.37 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$121 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,783 loss on $10,000 · 27.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.