Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
EchoStar (SATS)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAsset Management - CryptocurrencySnapshot 2026-11-04
$95.01+2.33%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesAsset Management - CryptocurrencySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.56 → 1.35 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SATS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS recovers to positive levels | A supporting condition in EchoStar's published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.78 next quarter. | Broken | EPS falls below $0.50 next quarter | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a volatile, loss-making business rather than an established earnings compounder. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is neutral, but it remains below its industry cohort and recent earnings have been erratic.
The valuation model indicates SATS is expensive versus peers, with a large expectations gap, though model confidence is low. Valuation rose recently, and the priced-in assessment labels expectations unjustified; fragility is rated low, so that assessment does not signal concentrated fragility.
Near term, earnings execution is a risk: the evidence flags recent misses and a 39% miss probability for the next print. Revenue was slightly lower in the supplied comparison, and the data does not show that spectrum transactions have delivered stronger revenue; merger completion remains a stated priority to watch.
Over the multi-year view, the key test is whether spectrum transactions improve business opportunities or financial flexibility, and whether the DISH Network merger is completed. Near-term sector support could strengthen if the Fed cuts rates or major sector companies keep reporting strong results, while weaker results from those companies could remove that support.
The 1–3 year thesis remains uncertain: plans offer possible avenues for progress, but the supplied evidence does not yet show improved financial performance, and execution risk is meaningful. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| EchoStar improved operating income from -$779.7M in 2025-Q4 to $392.8M in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| Operating income falls below $0 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $147.75M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $392.8M operating income. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026147,750,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $3.67B per quarter | A primary condition in EchoStar's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.6B quarterly revenue. | Broken | Quarterly revenue falls below $3.6B after 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $1.128B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.6B quarterly revenue. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 20261,127,611,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Progress in restructuring and partnerships | New satellite network partnerships enhance strategic optionality. | Under Pressure | No progress or reversal in restructuring and partnership efforts | Qualitative: Bankruptcy filed, CEO resigned Hughes filed for bankruptcy in August 2026; CEO resigned in July 2026 due to strategic direction changes. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.65 → $1.35 · observed estimates
$13.97B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.65 | $13,967,240,211 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.56 | $13,526,562,744 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.61 | $11,339,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.61 | $11,339,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.61 | $11,339,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.61 | $11,339,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.35 | $11,188,500 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.