Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sabra Health Care REIT (SBRA)
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$20.89-0.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.77 → 0.75 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SBRA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share | It maintains a stable dividend of $0.30 per share, showing strong capital allocation. | Intact | Dividend per share falls below $0.30 in any quarter of 2026 | Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.30 quarterly. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a healthcare real estate income and growth business, with a multi-year thesis based on portfolio expansion and earnings growth. The thesis is intact, and the latest signal has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though confidence is medium.
Valuation is expensive versus peers, at a 1.5% premium, and the expectations gap is slightly negative. The pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility, but the evidence does not spell out exactly what earnings assumptions the market already expects.
Near term, results have been strong overall, with an August earnings beat after an April result in line and a February miss. Management is on track with its 2026 guidance and portfolio growth priorities, including expected growth of 7% in Normalized FFO and 8% in AFFO per share over 2025. The next call matters because a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback, and the company has a history of recent quarterly misses in a high-miss-rate industry.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis depends on management continuing to deliver earnings growth and expand the portfolio. Near term, lower interest rates could support rate-sensitive real estate, while a guidance cut or weakening results from sector peers could remove support. The quarterly dividend has stayed at $0.30 per share, though delivery on that priority is rated mixed.
The 1-to-3-year thesis is intact, supported by recent financial strength and execution, but expensive versus peers and exposed to guidance and sector risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Earnings per share are expected near $0.62 in 2026, supporting steady income. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $0.60 for FY26 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth of at least 13% annually | A primary condition in Sabra Health Care REIT's published investment case. The stated target is >=13% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 31.32% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=13% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 2, 202631.324426 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.76 → $0.75 · observed estimates
$0.97B → $1.02B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.76 | $974,176,100 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.76 | $987,563,850 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.76 | $987,563,850 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.76 | $987,563,850 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.76 | $987,563,850 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.76 | $987,563,850 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.78 | $987,099,449 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.78 | $987,099,449 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.78 | $987,099,449 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.76 | $987,563,850 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.78 | $987,099,449 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.78 | $987,099,449 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.76 | $987,563,850 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.78 | $987,099,449 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.78 | $988,891,430 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.78 | $988,891,430 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.78 | $988,891,430 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.79 | $989,580,927 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.77 | $1,003,710,044 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.77 | $1,009,461,844 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.77 | $1,009,461,844 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.77 | $1,009,461,844 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.77 | $1,009,461,844 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.77 | $1,009,461,844 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.77 | $1,009,461,844 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.77 | $1,011,564,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.76 | $1,016,844,444 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.75 | $1,023,176,950 | 5 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.