Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.47-1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBUX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 25.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SBUX — CFO transition
Dated 2026-06-12
principal accounting officer — Val Bauduin: Val Bauduin was promoted to principal accounting officer within the company.
Why it matters: The loyalty program is designed to enhance customer engagement. Its success could drive sales growth.
Watch forMore customer transactions or sales come from the loyalty program.
Also watch forNo big change in customer transactions or sales after the loyalty program started.
Why it matters: Innovations are part of the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy. They can boost customer engagement and sales.
Supportive ifNew coffeehouse ideas were shared. They aim to make the customer experience better.
Worry ifNo new coffeehouse innovations were announced or launched in the next few months.
Why it matters: Higher restructuring costs may show problems with the growth plan.
Worry ifRestructuring costs are above $1 billion.
Less concerning ifRestructuring costs are below $1 billion.
Why it matters: The joint venture is key for growth in China. It will show if Starbucks can expand effectively in this market.
Watch forQ4 International segment revenue is better due to the joint venture.
Also watch forQ4 International segment revenue keeps going down or shows no change.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$95 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $246 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,451 loss on $10,000 · 14.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management and efficiency. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP operating margin was over 11% for Q4.
Worry ifNon-GAAP operating margin was below 11% for Q4.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A decline could signal ongoing challenges despite revenue growth.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $0.50.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share reported at $0.50 or higher.
Why it matters: This venture is crucial for growth in China. Progress or setbacks will impact future performance.
Watch forManagement says the joint venture is now working well.
Also watch forManagement says there are delays or problems with the joint venture.
Why it matters: Labor costs have a big impact on profits and operating margins.
Worry ifLabor costs increase more than 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifLabor costs increase less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: These changes could increase customer engagement and sales. They are part of the innovation plan.
Supportive ifNew features in the loyalty program help get more customers involved.
Worry ifThere are no updates or bad feedback on the loyalty program changes.
Why it matters: The transition to a joint venture in China is crucial for future growth. It will affect revenue and operational strategy in a key market.
Watch forRevenue from Starbucks China shows signs of stabilization or growth post-joint venture.
Also watch forStarbucks China is seeing a big drop in revenue after the joint venture.
Why it matters: This growth would confirm the effectiveness of the 'Back to Starbucks' strategy. It shows strong customer demand and operational success.
Supportive ifQ4 U.S. comparable store sales growth reported at 6.5% or higher.
Worry ifQ4 U.S. comparable store sales growth reported below 6.5%.
Why it matters: Successful execution of the joint venture can enhance growth in a key market. It reflects Starbucks' ability to adapt and expand.
Supportive ifPositive updates on store openings or revenue growth from the joint venture in China.
Worry ifBad news about store performance or problems in the joint venture.
Why it matters: This report can influence consumer spending and pricing strategies. It affects how customers perceive value.
Watch forCPI report shows inflation rate lower than 3%.
Also watch forCPI report shows inflation rate higher than 3%.