Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$109.70+4.71%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBUX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 20.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SBUX — restructuring
Dated 2026-09-24
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities On September 22, 2026, the Board of Directors of Starbucks Corporation (the “Company”) approved further actions under its previously announced “Back to Starbucks” strategy. The “Back to Starbucks” strategy focuses on revitalizing coffeehouses, enhancing the customer experience, and strengthening the Company’s coffeehouse portfolio. As part of that strategy, the Company further assessed its existing North America store portfolio and will close…
Why it matters: Starbucks plans a larger store build after closing about 250 North America coffeehouses. Openings will test its growth plan.
Supportive ifStarbucks reports about 1,200 net new global coffeehouses in FY27.
Worry ifFY27 net new coffeehouses fall well below 1,200, or the company cuts its opening plan.
Why it matters: This tests whether sales and margin gains turn into higher earnings, apart from the extra fiscal week.
Supportive ifFY27 non-GAAP EPS is at least $3.15, and the report separates the extra week’s contribution.
Worry ifFY27 non-GAAP EPS is below $3.15 after the company accounts for the extra week.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $247 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,635 loss on $10,000 · 16.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.