Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-07-07
$102.11-2.07%
Close 2026-07-06 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $102.11. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $102, SBUX's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 75× p/e (3.7× the 20× p/e peer median, and 1.7× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~45% near-term growth vs our ~0% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $71 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts target $97–$117. Note: our $71 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($97–$117). Not investment advice.
$97.00 – $117.00 (median $110.00) · 11 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 89% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.40/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $110.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $43.42 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $34.34 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $31.58 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $47.16 | 20.1 | 2.35 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $41.31 | 12.6 | 4.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $43.83 | 18.4 | 2.38 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $27.49 | 20.1 | 1.37 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $32.06 | 1.0 | 33.65 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $83.50 | 60.9 | 1.37 | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $59.51 | 43.4 | 1.37 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $27.72 | 20.1 | 1.38 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $321.04 | 20.1 | 16.00 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $43.38 | 18.4 | 2.36 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $46.17 | 20.1 | 2.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $14.02 | 1.0 | 14.71 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $140.22 | 60.9 | 2.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $99.94 | 43.4 | 2.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $43.09 | 18.4 | 2.34 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $26.60 | 20.1 | 1.33 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $80.78 | 60.9 | 1.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $57.57 | 43.4 | 1.33 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.