Starbucks (SBUX)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$104.47-1.28%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SBUX
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $104 SBUX trades at 43× p/e — 2.6× the 17× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $83 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $110–$130. Note: our $83 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($110–$130). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $126 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $120.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $92.27 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $52.01 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $40.99 | 11.1 | 4.58 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$110.00 – $130.00 (median $120.00) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-08-18
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 102% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly — years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.30/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| 12M |
| $72.97 |
| 22.9 |
| 3.18 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $66.84 | 21.5 | 3.12 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $30.82 | 0.9 | 33.52 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $127.53 | 52.5 | 2.43 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $41.26 | 16.9 | 2.45 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $89.08 | 22.9 | 3.89 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $63.60 | 21.5 | 2.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $23.63 | 0.9 | 25.70 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $155.56 | 52.5 | 2.96 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $101.75 | 22.9 | 4.44 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $36.89 | 21.5 | 1.72 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $13.71 | 0.9 | 14.91 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $90.24 | 52.5 | 1.72 | Analyst | medium |