Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.70+0.07%
Close 2026-08-31 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Gross margin near 34% in fiscal 2026: 33.3% vs 34.0% target.
Shoe Carnival sells shoes in the US and keeps its profit margin near 34%. The company aims for EPS between $1.40 and $1.60 in fiscal 2026. It pays a steady dividend of $0.17 per share each quarter. Recent earnings beats and a $50 million share buyback support confidence.
Shoe Carnival faces pressure from a tough retail sector and sector headwinds. Revenue is expected to decline about 4% next year. The company missed earnings in late 2025 and had a net loss in Q1 2026. CEO changes add uncertainty.
The stock trades about 38% below our fair value near $28. Analysts expect revenue to fall about 4% next year. Our view is more optimistic on EPS and margin stability.
Breaks if: dividend falls below $0.17 per share quarterly
The company continues to maintain its quarterly cash dividend payment of $0.17 per share.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cautious view on a consumer discretionary company. The current thesis state is mixed, with some positive signals but also significant risks that could impact performance in the near term.
The market currently prices SCVL as cheap compared to its peers, indicating that investors may have low expectations for future performance. There is an expectations gap, suggesting that the stock is not reflecting overly optimistic forecasts.
Fundamentals are likely to remain neutral in the near term, as management has reaffirmed guidance but faces challenges in meeting these targets. The recent financial performance has been below industry peers, which could weigh on future results.
The long-term thesis hinges on management's ability to meet earnings and revenue guidance, as well as external factors like inflation and sector performance. Positive momentum from leading companies in the sector could provide a favorable lift.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company faces challenges as it plans to close dozens of stores. This may impact revenue growth guidance for fiscal 2026. The recent market backdrop also shows a downward trend, affecting sentiment in the consumer discretionary sector.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company maintains its quarterly cash dividend payment of $0.17 per share. This reflects a stable capital allocation strategy despite a net income loss of $5.63 million in 2026-Q1.
“The Company’s Board of Directors approved the payment of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.17 per share.”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $1.40 in fiscal 2026
Management has reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60. However, the company reported a diluted EPS of -0.21 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the guidance target.
“We are reaffirming our previously communicated Fiscal 2026 guidance: Adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.60.”
“Adjusted EPS: expected in a range of $1.40 to $1.60.”
Breaks if: gross margin falls below 30%
Management has reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60. However, the company reported a diluted EPS of -0.21 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the guidance target.
“We are reaffirming our previously communicated Fiscal 2026 guidance: Adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.60.”
“Adjusted EPS: expected in a range of $1.40 to $1.60.”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.12 billion in fiscal 2026
Management has reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed the Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60. However, the company reported a diluted EPS of -0.21 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress towards the guidance target.
“We are reaffirming our previously communicated Fiscal 2026 guidance: Adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.60.”
“Adjusted EPS: expected in a range of $1.40 to $1.60.”
Over the next one to three years, SCVL's performance will depend on management execution and broader economic conditions. Not investment advice.