Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.70+0.07%
Close 2026-08-31 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCVL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SCVL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On Ma…
Why it matters: Management kept its $1.40 to $1.60 adjusted EPS guide after Q1 adjusted EPS of $0.23. The next results will show if the plan stays on track.
Watch forFiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is at least $1.40, the low end of the reaffirmed guide.
Also watch forManagement cuts the $1.40 to $1.60 adjusted EPS guide, or full-year adjusted EPS falls below $1.40.
Why it matters: Management named Shoe Station the main long-term growth banner. Its Q1 sales fell 3.1%, so new stores and stronger sales would test that plan.
Supportive ifThe company opens new Shoe Station stores in fiscal 2027. Shoe Station sales rise year over year.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 store openings are delayed, or Shoe Station sales keep falling year over year.
Why it matters: Q1 sales were $270.7 million, while the full-year guide starts at $1.125 billion. Back-to-school and fall sales carry much of the year's earnings.
Watch forFiscal 2026 net sales reach at least $1.125 billion, within the company's $1.125 billion to $1.147 billion guide.
Also watch forFiscal 2026 net sales fall below $1.125 billion, or management cuts the sales guide.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $513 loss on $10,000 · 5.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,682 loss on $10,000 · 36.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.