Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.70+0.07%
Close 2026-08-31 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCVL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -49.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 49.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SCVL — earnings in line
Dated 2026-05-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The following information shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. On Ma…
Why it matters: When management reaffirms EPS guidance, it shows they believe in future earnings. This helps investors see growth potential.
Supportive ifManagement reaffirms Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance range of $1.40 to $1.60.
Worry ifManagement revises EPS guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company pays the declared dividend of $0.17 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or stops the dividend payment.
Why it matters: Cutting inventory helps improve margins and cash flow.
Supportive ifInventory declines by $50 to $65 million by the end of Fiscal 2026.
Worry ifInventory reduction fails to reach the target of $50 to $65 million.
Why it matters: EPS guidance is important for measuring profit. Confirmation would help management's growth plan.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 meets or exceeds $0.40.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 is below $0.30. This shows challenges in meeting guidance.
Why it matters: Meeting revenue goals shows recovery from past drops. It shows business stability.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $270 million.
Worry ifQ2 revenue is below $270 million. This shows ongoing sales problems.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth in the sector can signal a recovery. This affects Shoe Carnival's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth turns positive after being in decline.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is still negative or getting worse.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It comforts investors in tough times.
Supportive ifThe company continues to pay the quarterly dividend of $0.17 per share.
Worry ifThe company cuts or suspends the dividend payment.
Why it matters: The name change reflects a new strategy. It may impact brand perception and market positioning.
Supportive ifThe stock begins trading under the new ticker 'SHOE' on June 12, 2026.
Worry ifThe company delays the name change or fails to execute it as planned.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$170 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $497 loss on $10,000 · 5.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,575 loss on $10,000 · 45.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.