Shoe Carnival, Inc. (SCVL)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.70+0.07%
Close 2026-08-31 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SCVL
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 11 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $14 SCVL trades at 7.7× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits well above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks and quality doesn't explain valuation multiples in this sub-industry, so the peer comparison is a weak guide. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $29.86 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $32.18 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $6.57 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $31.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $69.27 |
| 17.9 |
| 3.76 |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $43.87 | 19.3 | 2.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $29.25 | 16.3 | 1.79 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $15.28 | 0.4 | 42.06 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $22.59 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $15.61 | 8.7 | 1.79 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $30.55 | 16.3 | 1.87 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $39.02 | 16.3 | 2.39 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $16.15 | 0.4 | 44.46 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $20.82 | 8.7 | 2.39 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $40.49 | 16.3 | 2.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $16.76 | 0.4 | 46.13 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $21.61 | 8.7 | 2.48 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |