Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Schrödinger, Inc. (SDGR)
NASDAQHealth CareSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.77+0.88%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SDGR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Drug discovery revenue growth to sustain above $22.9M | Schrödinger is growing drug discovery revenue strongly, from $10.2M to $22.9M in Q1 2026. | Intact | drug discovery revenue falls below $22.9 million in any quarter | Drug Discovery unavailable in the latest segment data Last available Drug Discovery revenue: $32.569M in FY2023-Q1. Latest source period is FY2026-Q2; a broader segment cannot substitute for this measure. May 4, 2023Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not yet supported by consistent profits. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on hosted software and drug discovery, but recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation model indicates SDGR is expensive versus peers, with a 2.34 premium measure, while the expectations gap is 0.0. Confidence in that valuation view is low, and no pricing fragility signals are flagged.
Over the multi-year view, hosted software’s share of software revenue has risen, and drug discovery revenue has grown, partly with help from a milestone payment. Bunsen AI has launched in early access, but it has no direct financial metrics yet; near term, losses, weak performance, and erratic earnings surprises remain concerns.
The thesis depends on continued growth in hosted licensing and drug discovery, and on whether Bunsen develops into a meaningful product. Near term, guidance cuts or a weaker jobs backdrop could weigh on the business environment, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, SDGR has signs of execution progress but still faces elevated risk because it remains loss-making and recent performance is weak. The thesis hinges on turning product and revenue progress into stronger financial results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Drug discovery revenue is expected to range from $75 million to $85 million, compared to the prior expectation of $65 million to $75 million.” “• Drug discovery revenue is expected to range from $65 million to $75 million, compared to the prior expectation of $55 million to $65 million, due to the achievement of a $10 million collaboration milestone associated with the Ajax acquisition.”
Progress in transition to hosted software licensing | The company is shifting to hosted software licensing, a strategic move despite short-term revenue decline. | Improving | software revenue declines more than 21% from 2025-Q1 levels persistently | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “2026 Financial and Operational Outlook As of November 4, 2026, Schrödinger provided the following financial guidance for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026: • ACV is expected to range from $222 million to $232 million, representing 12-17% growth over 2025, compared to the prior expectation of $218 million to $228 million or 10-15% growth over 2025.” “Schrödinger expects that the majority of its software contracts will be transitioned to hosted agreements by 2028.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Improvement in EPS losses | A supporting condition in Schrödinger, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows vs prior year. | Improving | EPS loss worsens beyond -$2.23 in FY 2026 | Diluted EPS: $-0.50 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows vs prior year. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-0.5 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue growth near $223 million in FY 2026 | A primary condition in Schrödinger, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$223 million. | Improving | annual revenue falls below $218 million in FY 2026 | Revenue: $64.491M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$223 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 202664,491,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 4 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Drug discovery revenue is expected to range from $75 million to $85 million, compared to the prior expectation of $65 million to $75 million.” “• Drug discovery revenue is expected to range from $65 million to $75 million, compared to the prior expectation of $55 million to $65 million, due to the achievement of a $10 million collaboration milestone associated with the Ajax acquisition.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.66 → $-1.45 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.25B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.22 | $265,219,785 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.22 | $265,219,785 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.22 | $265,219,785 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.22 | $265,219,785 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.66 | $265,148,300 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.35 | $266,651,980 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.35 | $266,651,980 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.35 | $266,651,980 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.47 | $266,652,747 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.42 | $250,302,659 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.45 | $248,202,659 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.45 | $248,174,088 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.45 | $248,174,088 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.