Schrödinger, Inc. (SDGR)
NASDAQHealth CareSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.09-2.99%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SDGR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -33.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SDGR — officer change
Dated 2026-06-08
Chief Commercial Officer, Global Head of Software Sales and Marketing — Mannix Aklian: Mr. Aklian's separation from the Company with a severance package.
Why it matters: Going beyond this target shows good teamwork and growth in drug discovery.
Supportive ifDrug discovery revenue was over $65 million. This shows strong teamwork results.
Worry ifDrug discovery revenue was under $55 million. This suggests weaker performance.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact company direction. They also affect how priorities are carried out.
Worry ifA new executive hire aligns with strategic goals.
Less concerning ifMore leaders leaving without clear replacements or plans.
Why it matters: Strong adoption numbers show the product's success. They also suggest revenue growth.
Supportive ifLook for reports of high user engagement or new partnerships with Bunsen soon.
Worry ifWatch for low user engagement or no new partnerships for Bunsen.
Why it matters: A drop below this number would show ongoing challenges in revenue growth. This could signal deeper issues in the business model.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $58.6M. This shows revenue is still going down.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue is stable or above $58.6M. This means recovery efforts are working.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$181 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $542 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,084 loss on $10,000 · 50.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can impact how well sales are done and the company's path.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a new Chief Commercial Officer with a strong track record.
Less concerning ifOngoing leadership issues or no new appointments.
Why it matters: Good news could lead to more cash payments for Schrödinger.
Supportive ifAjax reached a key clinical milestone. This triggers cash payments to Schrödinger.
Worry ifAjax did not meet clinical milestones. This means no extra payments.
Why it matters: The result of this lawsuit could change how the company operates. Legal issues can hurt stock prices.
Worry ifUpdates on the lawsuit show a resolution that is good for the company.
Less concerning ifNegative news in the lawsuit hurts the company's position.
Why it matters: The launch could enhance Schrödinger's product offering and drive future revenue growth.
Supportive ifBunsen's launch is now official. Early user feedback is good.
Worry ifDelay in Bunsen's launch or negative feedback from early users.
Why it matters: Positive data could increase confidence in Schrödinger's drug pipeline. It may attract more investor interest.
Supportive ifPositive early data was shared for SGR-3515 at a big conference.
Worry ifNegative data or no data was shared for SGR-3515. This raises concerns about the drug's success.
Why it matters: If it drops below this level, there will be challenges with hosted software licensing.
Worry ifQ2 ACV was below $19 million. This shows poor customer transition or retention.
Less concerning ifQ2 ACV was above $23 million. This shows strong customer engagement and transition success.
Why it matters: Partnerships can help speed up the development and sale of these important drugs.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a strategic partnership for SGR-1505 or SGR-3515 within six months.
Worry ifNo partnerships announced. This could cause delays in development.
Why it matters: Improving operating income is crucial for the company's financial health. A smaller loss would show progress.
Supportive ifOperating income was less than -$48.8M. This shows some improvement.
Worry ifOperating income worsened to more than -$48.8M. This shows problems in cost management.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow could signal operational issues. Strong cash flow is key for growth.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $144.1M. This may mean there are problems.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations is above $144.1M. This confirms ongoing operational strength.
Why it matters: Keeping costs below this amount shows good management while growing.
Supportive ifOperating expenses were below $74 million. This shows good cost control.
Worry ifOperating costs went over $78 million. This may mean there are inefficiencies.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows the company's software business is still growing.
Supportive ifQ3 ACV was $41 million or more, showing growth is on track.
Worry ifQ3 ACV was below $38 million, which may mean slower growth.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would prove the growth plan is working.
Supportive ifDrug discovery revenue was $65 million or more, showing growth is happening.
Worry ifDrug discovery revenue was less than $55 million. This may show problems.