Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Seaport Entertainment Group, Inc. (SEG)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.52+3.29%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.50 → 1.50 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SEG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Complete sale of 250 Water Street project for $143 million | Seaport Entertainment completed the $143 million sale of 250 Water Street. | Intact | Sale not completed or reversed after 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a real estate recovery and execution case, not a proven durable compounder, since the company remains loss-making. The thesis state is watch, while the signal has shifted from cautious to mixed after an earnings beat; the evidence is medium confidence.
SEG is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium reflected in the valuation evidence. The expectations gap is elevated, but the model has low confidence, so the size of the gap is uncertain; the evidence does not show a high overall fragility level.
In the near term, results remain weak, though Q2 2026 losses narrowed and adjusted net income moved slightly above zero. Management completed the 250 Water Street sale and opened new Seaport concepts, but earnings have been erratic, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful risk.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis depends on continued progress at the Seaport and sustained improvement in financial performance. Near-term support could come from Fed rate cuts, while weaker guidance or cracks among real estate peers could remove sector support.
The multi-year view is mixed: management has delivered on some priorities, but ongoing losses, weak relative performance, and an expensive valuation leave execution as the key test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management aims to improve earnings after recent losses. |
| Improving |
| Operating income worsens beyond -$42.5M or no improvement next year |
Operating income: $-9.22M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves from -$42.5M in 2026-Q1 toward break-even. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026-9,220,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize executive leadership after recent departures | Management aims to improve earnings after recent losses. | Under Pressure | Additional CEO or CFO departures before 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stabilize and grow revenue above $12.7 million quarterly | A primary condition in Seaport Entertainment Group, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Revenue >= $12.7 million per quarter, growing toward $38 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $12.7 million quarterly persistently | Revenue: $32.704M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Revenue >= $12.7 million per quarter, growing toward $38 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202632,704,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.09 → $1.50 · observed estimates
$0.13B → $0.14B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.09 | $129,222,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.09 | $129,199,999 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.50 | $136,130,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.