Seaport Entertainment Group, Inc. (SEG)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$26.26+0.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 186.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 177.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SEG — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-29
Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary — Lucy Fato: Ms. Fato ceased to serve as Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Corporate Secretary with no immediate successor named.
Why it matters: Changes in auditors can signal issues with financial reporting. It may affect investor trust.
Worry ifThe new auditor, Grant Thornton, reports positive findings in their first audit.
Less concerning ifThe new auditor flags significant issues or concerns in their audit report.
Why it matters: This report will show if SEG is making more money after recent losses.
Watch forQ2 2026 net loss decreases year over year or revenue increases from $12.7 million.
Also watch forQ2 2026 net loss increases year over year or revenue declines further.
Why it matters: Revenue growth shows the company is getting better. It shows good financial health.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenues increase year over year by at least 5%.
Worry ifQ3 total revenues decline year over year by more than 10%.
Why it matters: Better metrics would mean SEG is fixing its money problems.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from -$42.5 million in Q1 2026 to a smaller loss or profit.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays below -$42.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$112 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $319 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,988 loss on $10,000 · 29.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A big drop in revenue shows ongoing problems. This is true even with recent gains.
Worry ifQ3 2026 total revenue down more than 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 2026 total revenue declines less than 15% year over year or grows.
Why it matters: New openings could signal growth and improve SEG's financial outlook.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least two new concepts opening at the Seaport in 2026.
Worry ifNo new concepts announced or opened by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect company plans and stability. The CEO change raises worries.
Worry ifA new CEO or key executive is appointed within the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNo new leaders or more problems in management in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Completing this sale is a key part of the company's capital plans. It shows management's focus on improving cash flow.
Supportive ifThe sale is confirmed and reported as completed in a press release.
Worry ifThe sale is delayed or not completed by the next earnings report.
Why it matters: High occupancy rates show strong demand for what the company offers. This can lead to more revenue.
Supportive ifOccupancy rates in the Seaport neighborhood are over 90% for two months in a row.
Worry ifOccupancy rates drop below 85% for two months in a row.
Why it matters: Sadie's opening is a key part of SEG's strategy to attract more visitors and improve revenue.
Supportive ifVisitor numbers at Sadie's exceed 10,000 in the first month after opening.
Worry ifVisitor numbers at Sadie's are below 5,000 in the first month after opening.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector picks up, it could help Seaport's recovery.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth shows an increase back toward previous highs.
Worry ifSector revenue growth keeps slowing down or stays the same.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss means better financial management. It shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifNet loss for common stockholders improves by at least 20% each year.
Worry ifNet loss for common stockholders increases each year.
Why it matters: The opening could bring more visitors and increase revenue at Seaport locations.
Supportive ifThe Balloon Museum opens and attracts over 10,000 visitors in the first month.
Worry ifThe Balloon Museum opens but attracts fewer than 5,000 visitors in the first month.
Why it matters: Strong performance may mean good management. It can also show more customer interest.
Supportive ifSadie’s Garden Bar had a revenue increase of over 100% for two quarters in a row.
Worry ifSadie’s Garden Bar had a revenue increase of less than 50% for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows better financial health and stronger management.
Supportive ifQ3 net loss for common stockholders improves by at least 20% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 net loss for common stockholders worsens or improves by less than 10% compared to last year.
Why it matters: A strong playoff run could enhance brand visibility and drive more visitors to Seaport venues.
Supportive ifThe Las Vegas Aviators reach the championship series in the playoffs.
Worry ifThe Las Vegas Aviators are eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.