Seaport Entertainment Group, Inc. (SEG)
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.52+3.29%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReal Estate - ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SEG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 209.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 198.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SEG — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-05
of this Current Report, including Exhibits 99.1 and 99.2, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section. Such information shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or the Exchange Act, unless it is specifically inc…
Why it matters: The sector is mature, and its margin trend is near -3%. A return to growth would support the sector backdrop for SEG's property and event business.
Supportive ifSector data show revenue growth turning positive year over year.
Worry ifSector data show revenue growth stays flat or negative, with margins still near or below -3%.
Why it matters: Q2 revenue fell 13.8% year over year to $34.3 million. Another drop would point to weak demand or lower income from its sites.
Worry ifQ3 revenue is below $34.3 million, the Q2 2026 total, or falls year over year again.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue rises year over year and tops $34.3 million.
Why it matters: The five-year lease adds a new draw to the Seaport. An on-time opening would show progress on the plan to add new concepts.
Supportive ifSEG or Lux Entertainment confirms Balloon Museum has opened at the Tin Building.
Worry ifSEG reports the opening is delayed, the lease ends, or the museum has not opened by its next results update.
Why it matters: Q2 adjusted income reached $0.3 million, while first-half adjusted loss was $17.6 million. More gains would show progress, but this measure is not cash flow.
Watch forSEG reports adjusted net income above zero for a second straight quarter.
Also watch forSEG reports adjusted net loss in Q3 after Q2 adjusted income of $0.3 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$89 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $304 loss on $10,000 · 3.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,580 loss on $10,000 · 25.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: SEG regained the Nike space and began work on an event venue. Opening it and booking events would show the space can earn income again.
Supportive ifSEG reports the Pier 17 Event Space has opened or names its first booked events.
Worry ifSEG reports the buildout is delayed, or gives no opening or booking update by its next results release.
Why it matters: SEG's Q2 net loss to common holders narrowed 29.2% year over year. Wider losses would break that recent improvement.
Watch forQ3 net loss to common stockholders is smaller than $10.5 million.
Also watch forQ3 net loss to common stockholders exceeds $10.5 million.
Why it matters: SEG reported 89% leased or programmed occupancy. A higher rate would show it is filling more of the Seaport.
Supportive ifSEG reports that over 89% of Seaport is leased or programmed.
Worry ifSEG reports occupancy below 89%, or says a planned tenant or concept will not open.