Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Senseonics Holdings Inc (SENS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$7.99-11.42%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SENS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin improves to about 56.5% in FY26 | Gross margin is improving to about 56.5% in 2026. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 55% in FY26 | Gross margin: 59.1% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 55% gross margin in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 202659.096872 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, with revenue growth and improving margins supporting the long-term thesis. Management is delivering on stated priorities, but the company remains loss-making and recent financial performance is weak.
The valuation evidence points to a premium versus peers, with optionality as the main reason for the difference. The expectations gap is negative, but model confidence is low, so the valuation read is uncertain. The evidence does not show strong fragility in what is priced in.
Near term, revenue growth and gross-margin progress are positive, and management has raised full-year 2026 gross-margin guidance. However, SENS has recently missed earnings more than once, and the next report carries an elevated miss risk. Equity and debt financing have strengthened the balance sheet to support commercial and product work, but the business remains loss-making.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued revenue growth, margin improvement, and execution of commercial and product plans. A reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility, while further earnings misses could keep performance weak. Strong results and guidance from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop, though a weakening jobs trend may weigh on cyclical healthcare names.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SENS has measurable execution progress but also meaningful financial and credibility risks. The long-term thesis remains in watch status, with continued growth and margin delivery central to its strength. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company is expanding through acquisitions to boost growth. |
| Intact |
| No meaningful acquisitions or failed integration in 2026 |
1 acquisition closed in 2026 vs continued activity target SENS closed local asset purchase agreements with Ascensia Diabetes Care in June 2026, confirming active M&A execution. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Operating income improves from -$31.8M in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Senseonics Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$31.8M in 2026-Q1 over next 4 quarters. | Broken | Operating loss worsens beyond -$31.8M in next 4 quarters | Operating income: $-35.988M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$31.8M in 2026-Q1 over next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 2026-35,988,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $62M in FY26 | A primary condition in Senseonics Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $60M revenue in FY26. | Intact | Revenue falls below $60M in FY26 | Revenue: $14.483M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $60M revenue in FY26. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q2. Aug 6, 202614,483,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.15 → $-1.93 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.10B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.15 | $97,927,829 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.15 | $97,927,829 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.19 | $97,938,570 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.21 | $98,267,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.21 | $98,267,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.21 | $98,267,140 | 5 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.15 | $97,922,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.91 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.91 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.91 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.91 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.91 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.91 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.93 | $99,975,714 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.93 | $99,978,971 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.93 | $99,981,643 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.