Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
Research Workspace
Put SERA beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Health Care Equipment: fringe margins under pressure (3q confirmed)
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Operating losses improve to better than -$9.36M by 2026-Q1: metric not reported.
View ThesisManagement screens weak on capital allocation, margins, the balance sheet, market reaction to earnings.
View ManagementThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 58% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSERA's growth depends on advancing commercial adoption and payer engagement. Revenue grew 76% year over year, but the latest earnings report missed expectations by 29%. The company trades below typical sector peers, with no earnings yield to assess. The market's current expectations may not fully reflect the risks of ongoing operating losses. If SERA misses again next quarter, pressure on the stock could increase. Peer multiples imply a price about 12% below where it trades. Our read remains provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-09-04. SERA is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 4 analysts currently covering SERA (as of Sep 2026).
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
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Compare SERA with peers and holdings, graph the same reported metric, keep your questions beside the evidence, and return when the facts change.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SERA Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 0 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Health Care Equipment — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Compare the value case
Put SERA next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Advances: Advance commercial adoption and payer engagement
Payer momentum indicates strong commercial adoption progress.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-09-04. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.

Advances: Advance commercial adoption and payer engagement
Illinois Medicaid penetration supports commercial adoption goals.

Threatens: Improve financial performance
Earnings miss indicates ongoing financial performance issues.

Advances: Increase revenue
Study results may enhance product value and drive revenue growth.
