Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.02+4.40%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SERA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Worth watching into the next print: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and is on a run of consecutive earnings misses. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 29 industry peers
SERA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Sera Prognostics, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 and providing business highlights. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
Why it matters: Sera lost $9.1 million in Q2 and had $80.3 million in cash and securities. Faster cash use could shorten its stated runway.
Worry ifQ3 operating expenses top $10.0 million, or cash and securities fall by more than $9.1 million from Q2.
Less concerning ifQ3 operating expenses stay at or below $10.0 million. Cash and securities fall by less than $9.1 million.
Why it matters: Management said testing rose month to month after the PRIME study came out. More growth would show that providers are adopting the test.
Supportive ifOn the November 12 earnings call, Sera reports another monthly rise in PreTRM testing volume. It gives a higher volume figure than in Q2.
Worry ifSera reports flat or falling testing volume, or does not share any volume update.
Why it matters: Illinois coverage applies to about 50,000 Medicaid births each year. Paid claims would show that the new law is reaching patients.
Supportive ifSera reports paid Illinois Medicaid claims for PreTRM tests or gives a count of tests covered under the new law.
Worry ifSera reports no paid Illinois claims, or says coverage or payment has been delayed.
Why it matters: A filed package would mark progress toward selling PreTRM in Europe. A delay would push that step back.
Supportive ifSera confirms that it submitted its CE marking package by December 31, 2026.
Worry ifSera says the submission did not happen by December 31, 2026, or gives a later filing date.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$195 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $708 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,691 loss on $10,000 · 56.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Sera reported more than 20 payer talks across over 20 states. New coverage deals would show progress beyond talks.
Supportive ifSera names a new payer coverage deal or reports that a payer has started a PreTRM program outside Illinois.
Worry ifSera reports no new payer deal or program, and its count of active payer opportunities falls below 20.