Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.02+2.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SERA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
A comparable price-assumption read is not available for this company.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SERA — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 12, 2026, Sera Prognostics, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 and providing business highlights. The full text of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K (including Exhibit 99.1) shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 19…
Why it matters: Changes in healthcare can impact Sera's market position and how investors feel.
Watch forHealthcare sector revenue growth is speeding up again toward its highs.
Also watch forHealthcare sector revenue growth is slowing down.
Why it matters: Managing cash is very important. The company is moving to a commercial stage.
Worry ifCash burn rate remains below $8 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash burn rate exceeds $8 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More testing volume shows that providers are becoming more aware of the PreTRM Test.
Supportive ifTesting volume goes up each month after the PRIME study is published.
Worry ifTesting volume drops or does not rise after the PRIME study is published.
Why it matters: Getting CE marking would help Sera Prognostics enter European markets. This could help them earn more money.
Supportive ifCompletion of CE marking submission activities by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifDelays in CE marking push the timeline past Q4 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$234 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $714 loss on $10,000 · 7.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,760 loss on $10,000 · 57.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A new partnership shows that more people can access the PreTRM Test.
Supportive ifThey announced a fifth partnership to use PreTRM Test-guided care.
Worry ifNo new partnership program is launched by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A new partnership program would show Sera's commitment to expanding access to the PreTRM Test.
Supportive ifA fifth partnership program was announced. This will help engage payers and reach more providers.
Worry ifNo new partnership program launched by the end of Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A continued drop in revenue shows the company is struggling to grow. This could signal deeper issues in the business.
Worry ifQ2 revenue reported below $14K, continuing the downward trend from Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A successful submission would help Sera grow in European markets.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the CE marking dossier submission by the end of Q4 2026.
Worry ifDelay in the CE marking dossier submission beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Positive clinical data could drive higher adoption of the PreTRM Test.
Supportive ifTesting volume goes up a lot after new clinical data is published.
Worry ifTesting volume does not go up much after new clinical data is published.
Why it matters: High operating losses show financial problems. This may hurt investor confidence and future funding.
Worry ifOperating income reported worse than -$9M in Q2.
Less concerning ifOperating income improves to less than -$9M.
Why it matters: Adoption by payers is crucial for revenue growth and market acceptance of the PreTRM test.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of new payer agreements or coverage for the PreTRM test.
Worry ifNo new payer agreements or coverage announcements for the PreTRM test.
Why it matters: What management thinks about revenue growth shows how healthy the company is. It also shows its place in the market.
Supportive ifManagement projects revenue growth above 10% for the coming year.
Worry ifManagement projects revenue growth below 5% for the coming year.
Why it matters: A new board member could bring fresh insights and connections. This may enhance Sera's strategic direction.
Supportive ifThey will announce a new board member before the next shareholder meeting.
Worry ifNo new board member is appointed before the next shareholder meeting.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for Sera's financial health. A rebound signals better market acceptance of the PreTRM test.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue increases year over year from $14,000 in Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue declines or remains below $14,000.
Why it matters: A strong board appointment could help Sera's strategy. It may also improve their execution.
Supportive ifA new board member is announced with experience in diagnostics or healthcare.
Worry ifNo announcement of a new board member within the next month.
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway are critical for Sera's ability to fund operations. A longer runway supports growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of cash runway extended beyond 2029 in Q2 earnings.
Worry ifThe cash runway is shorter than before. This raises concerns about finances.
Why it matters: New Medicaid coverage could lead to more people using the PreTRM Test.
Supportive ifReports say more people are using the PreTRM Test in Illinois. This is after Medicaid coverage started.
Worry ifNo big rise in PreTRM Test use in Illinois over the next two quarters.
Why it matters: Engaging with payers is crucial for reimbursement and adoption of the PreTRM test. Progress here indicates market readiness.
Supportive ifThey will announce successful agreements with at least 5 payers in the targeted states.
Worry ifNo new agreements with payers or failure to engage with the targeted 13 payers.
Why it matters: New clinical data could drive more providers to adopt the PreTRM Test, improving revenue.
Supportive ifPreTRM Test orders went up after new clinical data from the PRIME study was published.
Worry ifNo increase in test orders after the publication of new clinical data.
Why it matters: More payer partnerships could lead to increased adoption of the PreTRM Test.
Supportive ifManagement reports over 25 active payer discussions by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifPayer engagement is stuck or going down, with fewer than 20 active discussions.