Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sera Prognostics Inc (SERA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.02+4.40%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SERA yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Smooth CEO and board transitions without governance disruption | A supporting condition in Sera Prognostics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is No major governance disruptions during 2026-Q2. | Intact | Leadership changes cause material governance or operational disruption | No material disruption reported External CFO hired, director resigned, new director appointed; no governance disruption noted. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not an established earnings compounder, because it is loss-making and carries high risk. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on evidence and partnerships, but recent performance has lagged its industry cohort and the latest quarter was missed.
The evidence does not include a valuation measure or specific market expectations, so how much optimism is already priced in cannot be assessed. Recent price reaction is described as muted, but that alone does not show whether the shares are cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers.
Near term, the latest earnings miss and higher miss risk make execution a key concern. Over the multi-year view, partnership reach, payer discussions, clinical evidence, and regulatory readiness have progressed, while cash declined from $86.8 million in Q1 to $80.3 million in Q2 and operating expenses rose slightly. Management says the cash runway supports operations through 2029, but that claim remains worth watching.
The thesis depends on whether partnership programs and payer engagement translate into broader commercial adoption, while clinical evidence and regulatory readiness continue to advance. Near-term sector support could strengthen if ABT, MDT, and SYK keep reporting well, but weaker jobs data or setbacks at those bellwethers could weaken the backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SERA’s case rests on converting early commercial and clinical progress into stronger fundamentals while managing cash and execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Operating losses improve to better than -$9.36M by 2026-Q1 |
| Sera Prognostics aims to reduce operating losses from about -$9.42M to -$9.36M by 2026-Q1. |
| Under Pressure |
| Operating losses worsen beyond -$9.42 million in 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $-8.887M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -9.36 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 2026-8,887,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue stabilizes or grows above $14K in 2026-Q1 | A primary condition in Sera Prognostics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= 14,000 USD. | Improving | Revenue falls below $14,000 in 2026-Q1 | Revenue: $42,000 FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= 14,000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 202642,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.56 → $-0.54 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.58 | $2,675,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.56 | $2,666,400 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.54 | $1,917,825 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.54 | $1,925,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.