Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.23-1.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.32 → 2.30 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SFNC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS at or above $2.07 in FY26 | Profit margins remain stable with EPS around $0.47 per quarter. | Broken | EPS falls below $2.07 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.32 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.07 EPS. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.32 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a bank-sector investment with an improving operating trend, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its signal recently shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, but the thesis state remains insufficient because there is not enough recent financial history.
The valuation model describes SFNC as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and low fragility. The market appears to allow for some operating progress, but the loss-making value factor makes that valuation signal harder to rely on.
Near term, recent results show progress: revenue and net interest margin rose from the second to third quarter of 2026, while adjusted expenses declined and efficiency improved. Management is on track with growth and balance sheet priorities, though expense-control progress is mixed; recent earnings beats are encouraging, but prior misses and a low estimated miss risk remain relevant.
The multi-year view depends on whether SFNC sustains revenue growth, margin gains, and expense control. A guidance cut or rate cuts from the current level would be unfavorable, while continued strong earnings and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
SFNC’s operating evidence and recent momentum have improved, but the earnings record is still limited and the business remains exposed to rate and guidance risks. The 1-to-3-year thesis hinges on continued execution and whether the improving trends persist. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Simmons First National Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= -10% YoY revenue growth. |
| Intact |
| YoY revenue growth falls below -10% in FY26 |
Revenue growth: -1.4% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -10% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 2026-1.397472 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain active share repurchase program | A supporting condition in Simmons First National Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain announced buyback program. | Intact | No buyback activity or cancellation of program | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.20 → $2.30 · observed estimates
$1.05B → $1.03B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.20 | $1,046,324,180 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.20 | $1,046,338,950 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.25 | $1,046,338,463 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.25 | $1,046,338,463 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.25 | $1,046,338,463 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.25 | $1,046,338,463 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.27 | $1,048,322,241 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.30 | $1,050,261,240 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.30 | $1,050,602,098 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.30 | $1,050,602,098 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.30 | $1,050,602,098 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.30 | $1,050,602,098 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.31 | $1,052,083,864 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.31 | $1,052,083,864 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.31 | $1,052,083,864 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.32 | $1,052,241,007 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.32 | $1,052,241,007 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.32 | $1,052,241,007 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.32 | $1,052,241,007 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.32 | $1,052,241,007 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.32 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.33 | $1,052,241,007 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.32 | $1,042,853,135 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.30 | $1,032,118,205 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.