Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$23.69+3.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -11.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
SFNC — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-09-03
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. In this Current Report on Form 8-K, unless the context suggests otherwise, the term “Company” refers to Simmons First National Corporation and, where applicable, its direct and indirect subsidiaries, including Simmons Bank. On September 1, 2026, the Company decided to close 26 Simmons Bank branches across its six-state footprint (“Branch Closures”). The Company’s decision was made as part of a broader review of the Company’s retail network st…
Why it matters: Slower growth in net interest income may show problems with making money. Investors pay attention to this.
Worry ifNet interest income growth for Q3 is below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth for Q3 is above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial strength. It shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of keeping or raising the dividend per share.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or pause.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company can improve its financial condition. Investors will focus on revenue and profit trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: A stable or improving net interest margin shows good management of income and expenses. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifNet interest margin stays at or above 3.84% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.80%. This shows possible problems with making money.
Why it matters: Starting share buybacks would show a focus on using money wisely. It would also return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifShare repurchases announced or done before Q4 earnings.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced or done before Q4 earnings.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability and a promise to give value to shareholders. A cut could mean problems.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.215.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut below $0.215.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial health. It shows management cares about shareholders. A cut may mean financial trouble.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.215, showing commitment to returns.
Worry ifDividend per share is cut. This shows possible financial problems.
Why it matters: A drop in net income would show less profit after a recent earnings miss.
Worry ifNet income for Q3 falls below $66 million.
Less concerning ifNet income for Q3 remains above $66 million.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops below median, it may affect Simmons' performance.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 13% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 13% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect how a company runs. Stability is important for investor trust.
Watch forNo new executive changes are expected in the next quarter.
Also watch forMore big executive changes are expected in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth could mean problems in keeping steady growth and infrastructure.
Worry ifAnnualized loan growth drops below 3%.
Less concerning ifAnnualized loan growth remains above 3%.
Why it matters: Loan growth is important for revenue. It shows management's focus on careful growth.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 3% annualized in Q3.
Worry ifLoan growth is below 3% annualized in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher net interest margin means more profit from loans and deposits.
Supportive ifNet interest margin for Q2 2026 exceeds 3.84%, the level reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet interest margin for Q2 2026 drops below 3.84%.
Why it matters: Slower growth in net interest income may mean profit and capital problems.
Worry ifNet interest income growth is over 15% compared to last year.
Less concerning ifNet interest income growth is below 15% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Starting the share repurchase program may show that management believes in the company's value. It might make investors feel better.
Supportive ifThey announced share repurchases in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.
Why it matters: A higher efficiency ratio means costs are rising compared to revenue. This may worry investors.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio for Q3 exceeds 60%.
Less concerning ifEfficiency ratio for Q3 is below 60%.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is important for investor trust. It shows the company's financial health and success.
Supportive ifAdjusted earnings per share exceeds $0.50 in the next quarter.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share falls below $0.45 in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop in adjusted EPS may show less profit and worry investors.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 is below $0.47, the level reported in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EPS for Q2 2026 is above $0.47.
Why it matters: A decline in net interest income would hurt profit and capital use efforts.
Worry ifNet interest income drops below $200 million.
Less concerning ifNet interest income stays above $200 million.
Why it matters: A rise in net charge-offs means worse asset quality. This could hurt future earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-off ratio is over 25 bps. This shows possible asset quality problems.
Less concerning ifNet charge-off ratio is below 25 bps. This suggests stable asset quality.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income is important. It helps the company make money and use capital.
Supportive ifNet interest income increases each year. It is now over $200.6 million.
Worry ifNet interest income drops or does not grow year-over-year. This shows possible problems.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if the company can maintain growth after a recent earnings miss.
Watch forNet income is over $66.7 million. This shows recovery from last quarter's earnings miss.
Also watch forNet income is below $66.7 million. This shows ongoing challenges in making money.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$91 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $228 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,646 loss on $10,000 · 16.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.