Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$23.64+0.55%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SFNC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -13.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 10.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SFNC — strategy / product update — Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities
Dated 2026-09-03
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. In this Current Report on Form 8-K, unless the context suggests otherwise, the term “Company” refers to Simmons First National Corporation and, where applicable, its direct and indirect subsidiaries, including Simmons Bank. On September 1, 2026, the Company decided to close 26 Simmons Bank branches across its six-state footprint (“Branch Closures”). The Company’s decision was made as part of a broader review of the Company’s retail network st…
Why it matters: Net charge-offs were 27 basis points in Q3, up from 20 basis points in Q2. A further rise would weaken the recent stable credit trend.
Worry ifThe next reported net charge-off ratio is above 27 basis points.
Less concerning ifThe next reported net charge-off ratio is 27 basis points or less. The provision remains above net charge-offs.
Why it matters: Margin rose to 3.92% as loan yields rose and deposit costs fell. A further rise would extend that trend.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, net interest margin is above 3.92% and cost of deposits is below 1.85%.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.84%, or cost of deposits rises above 1.93%.
Why it matters: Management plans to set future financial targets at Investor Day. Clear targets would help test its growth and profit plans.
Watch forAt the December Investor Day, management sets clear goals for returns and growth. It gives dates to meet them.
Also watch forAt the December Investor Day, management sets no clear goals for returns or growth. Or, it sets goals below current results.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$75 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $204 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,396 loss on $10,000 · 14.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.