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SIBN
SI-BONE, Inc.NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$15.42+1.85%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. Key factors to watch include the potential for SIBN to cut guidance after recently raising it, which could harm credibility, and the performance of sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Market cap
- $671.45M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2018-09-20
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.42. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$19.57consensus
Range $16.40 – $22.73
vs price: -21% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$35.80consensus
Range $30.00 – $41.59
vs price: -57% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Aligned with peersmedium confidence
At $15 SIBN trades at 3× p/s, in line with its 3× p/s peer median. Our $20 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
3.3x
peer 2.9x · own history —
Premium
1.2x peer
Growth the price needs
-22%
our forecast 18%
Our fair value
$19.83
range $16.52 – $23.13
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 22% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 18%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
52nd pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.11x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
neutral2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=842).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BullishEPS revised +3.6% / 30d, n=7for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.16 → $-0.15 (+3.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 1 cut, 7 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$165.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$445.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,575.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'inexpensive' to 'fair'.
As of June 12, 2026, the valuation dimension changed and rose to a fair label from an inexpensive label. The sector backdrop remains a headwind, indicating challenges in the environment. Risk is elevated, suggesting a higher level of uncertainty. The company's earnings quality is noted as loss-making, which may impact overall performance.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SIBN yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting SIBN and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SIBN and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If SIBN beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +47% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If SIBN reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-11), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping SIBN and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-085d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 5, 2026, SI-BONE, Inc. (the “ Company ”) and BIXBY SPE FINANCE 11, LLC (“ Landlord ”) entered into the Third Amendment to Lease (the “ Third Lease Amendment ”) to the Office Lease Agreement (the “ Original Lease ”) dated as of February 2, 2018, as amended by that certain First Amendment to Lease (the “ First Amendment ”) dated as of April 16, 2018 and that certain Second Amendment to Lease (the " Second Amendment ") dated as of July 18, 2024…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+12 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.