SI-BONE, Inc. (SIBN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$18.50-0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SIBN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -19.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 18.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 38.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SIBN — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-06-08
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth in “
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that SI-BONE's plans are working.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is below 5% year over year, suggesting weakening sales.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA shows better performance and cost control. This helps build investor trust.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 is positive. This shows that operations are getting better.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q2 is negative. This shows there are operational problems.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company is managing costs well. This supports growth plans.
Supportive ifOperating income goes up by more than 15% from Q1.
Worry ifOperating income goes down or stays the same from Q1.
Why it matters: Better adjusted EBITDA means more profit and efficiency. This is key for long-term success.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 shows an increase compared to Q3 2025.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA in Q3 goes down or stays the same compared to Q3 2025.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $421 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,575 loss on $10,000 · 45.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this growth shows strong demand for SI-BONE's products. It confirms the company's growth trajectory.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth is 14% or higher compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth falls below 14% compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Higher payments could increase revenue and use of iFuse products.
Supportive ifCMS says it will finalize the higher payment for iFuse procedures.
Worry ifCMS does not finalize the higher payment for iFuse procedures.
Why it matters: If revenue growth falls below 15%, it may signal weakening demand or market challenges.
Worry ifQ3 worldwide revenue growth reported below 15%.
Less concerning ifQ3 worldwide revenue growth meets or exceeds 15%.
Why it matters: Changes in capital use can affect financial health. This impacts growth and stability.
Watch forA new plan is announced that lowers debt or boosts investment.
Also watch forNo changes in capital use or more debt increases.
Why it matters: Growth in gross profit shows better efficiency. This can bring in more investors.
Supportive ifGross profit increases to over $43M in the Q2 earnings report.
Worry ifGross profit declines below $40M in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: A smaller operating loss shows better cost control. It also shows improved efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating loss in Q2 is less than $5.1 million.
Worry ifOperating loss in Q2 is greater than $5.1 million.
Why it matters: A gross profit margin over 80% shows strong efficiency and good pricing power.
Supportive ifGross profit margin is above 80%. This shows strong operational performance.
Worry ifGross profit margin drops below 75%. This suggests there are operational challenges.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin may mean higher costs or pressure on prices. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifGross margin reported below 79% in Q3.
Less concerning ifGross margin remains at or above 79% in Q3.
Why it matters: New payment rules may help SI-BONE earn more money from spinal procedures.
Supportive ifCMS confirms a new MS-DRG family with higher payments starting October 1.
Worry ifCMS delays or cancels the new reimbursement rules.
Why it matters: The launch could drive significant revenue growth and expand market share.
Supportive ifSuccessful launch of the third breakthrough device in Q4.
Worry ifLaunch is delayed or does not meet market expectations.