Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SI-BONE, Inc. (SIBN)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$24.27-2.73%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SIBN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross margin stays near 79% | Gross margin stays strong near 79%. | Intact | Gross margin falls below 75% in FY26 | Gross margin: 79.29% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 79%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202679.28874 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth company working toward steady profitability, with a healthcare-sector tailwind but elevated company-specific risk. The multi-year view is still developing: recent results show progress, while performance remains below its industry cohort.
The valuation model describes SIBN as trading at a durable premium to peers, with expectations ahead of what the model supports. The overall priced-in assessment is marked justified, and no fragility gates were triggered, but the premium leaves limited room for expectations to weaken.
Near term, management’s revenue goal appears on track: first-half revenue rose 15.2%, and 2026 guidance implies 15% to 16% growth. Gross margin has stayed near 79%, while the operating loss narrowed and adjusted EBITDA increased; however, the evidence rates overall recent performance as neutral, and a prior guidance reduction remains relevant.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth continuing alongside stable margins and further improvement in operating results. Near term, a guidance increase after the earlier reduction would support the case, while weaker employment data could pressure cyclical healthcare names; continued strength from sector peers would be a positive signal. Recent filings also include an acquisition agreement, a new financial obligation, and litigation, but their implications are not detailed in the evidence.
Over the next one to three years, SIBN has evidence of growth and improving profitability, but its premium valuation, elevated risk, and performance gap versus peers leave execution as the central test. The thesis remains on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating income is improving, cutting losses from -$7.48M to -$5.09M. |
| Intact |
| Operating income worsens below -$7M in 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $-4.351M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= -$5.09M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026-4,351,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $231.5 million | A primary condition in SI-BONE, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$231.5M. | Intact | Revenue falls below $200M in FY26 | Revenue: $55.704M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$231.5M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202655,704,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.36 → $-0.30 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.36 | $266,612,288 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.35 | $266,634,620 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.35 | $266,634,620 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.35 | $266,634,620 | 7 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.36 | $266,612,288 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.34 | $267,643,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.36 | $266,612,288 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.35 | $267,623,515 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.35 | $267,623,515 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.34 | $267,643,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.34 | $267,643,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.34 | $268,456,818 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.34 | $267,643,360 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.34 | $268,171,770 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.33 | $268,441,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.33 | $268,441,280 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.34 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.33 | $268,441,501 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.33 | $268,441,279 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.33 | $268,430,055 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.30 | $267,996,030 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.30 | $268,107,142 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.