J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$126.08-1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth: FY27 EPS guidance $10.00 vs $9.75 target.
Smucker grows sales about 4% a year. Profit per share is near $10. The company spends $325 million on capital wisely. Free cash flow is about $1 billion. Cost cuts and coffee price drops help profits.
Sales may shrink 3-4% next year. Earnings per share could fall. Leadership changes may hurt execution. Growth and profit gains are not certain.
The price is about 13% below our fair value near $130. Analysts expect about 1% revenue decline. We see modest growth and profit stability ahead.
Breaks if: CAPEX rises above $400 million or falls below $250 million
Breaks if: EPS falls below $9.0 next year
Breaks if: FCF falls below $800 million next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable growth opportunity in the consumer staples sector. The current thesis is mixed, reflecting recent earnings beats but concerns about sector headwinds and potential guidance cuts.
The market appears to price SJM as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some negative news may already be reflected. The valuation is justified, suggesting that the current price does not overly reflect future growth potential.
Management is focused on driving organic volume growth and improving profitability, with recent results showing positive trends in both areas. However, the near-term risk remains moderate, as there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, but industry peers have faced challenges recently.
The long-term thesis hinges on SJM's ability to maintain its growth trajectory and navigate sector challenges. Key factors include potential inflationary pressures that could benefit consumer staples and the performance of sector leaders like KHC, GIS, and MKC.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. J.M. Smucker reported a strong earnings beat, raising its full-year guidance for net sales and adjusted EPS. However, the company faces legal challenges that could impact its brand reputation and sales.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below -1% next year
Overall, SJM's outlook is cautiously optimistic, with management priorities aligned towards growth and profitability. Not investment advice.