Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$132.43+3.48%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.96 → 11.05 EPS · FY ending Apr 30, 2028 · 6 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 7 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SJM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain disciplined capital deployment at $325 million | The company spends $325 million on capital wisely. | Intact | CAPEX rises above $400 million or falls below $250 million | Capital expenditures: $88.4M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: CAPEX = $325 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 202688,400,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-04-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a consumer staples business with a cyclical element, as weaker employment and recession fears can pressure the sector. The long-term thesis has shifted from mixed to mildly favorable, while the current state remains watch because recent performance is still below its industry cohort.
SJM is valued as cheap versus peers, and the pricing signal is judged justified, with low fragility. The expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are a little ahead of the model’s view.
Near-term results have improved: revenue, operating income, and adjusted earnings rose between 2026-Q1 and 2026-Q3, and recent earnings reports were positive. Management is on track with volume growth and profitability priorities, while capital deployment is mixed; weakening earnings surprises and a history of a deep miss remain risks.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued volume growth and better profitability, while maintaining disciplined capital spending. Near term, a guidance cut or further job-market weakness would weigh on the setup; continued earnings strength from sector peers could support it.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SJM’s improving execution supports a mildly favorable thesis, but its below-cohort performance and sensitivity to economic weakness remain important limits. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit per share is near $10. |
| Under Pressure |
| EPS falls below $9.0 next year |
Diluted EPS: $3.03 per share FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $9.75. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 20263.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are focused on advancing our strategic priorities of driving organic volume growth across our key platforms, improving profitability and accelerating earnings growth, and maintaining a disciplined approach to capital deployment.” “"Looking ahead, our strategic priorities for the fiscal year are to, drive focused organic volume growth across our key platforms, improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth, and maintain a disciplined approach to capital deployment.” Operating income was $511.600 million in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Generate free cash flow near $1 billion | Free cash flow is about $1 billion. | Intact | FCF falls below $800 million next year | Free cash flow: $337.3M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $1 billion. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 26, 2026337,300,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Drive focused organic volume growth to increase net sales | A primary condition in J.M. Smucker Company (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >=4% annual revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below -1% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We are focused on advancing our strategic priorities of driving organic volume growth across our key platforms, improving profitability and accelerating earnings growth, and maintaining a disciplined approach to capital deployment.” “"Looking ahead, our strategic priorities for the fiscal year are to, drive focused organic volume growth across our key platforms, improve profitability and accelerate earnings growth, and maintain a disciplined approach to capital deployment.” Revenue was $2.219 billion in 2027-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.78 → $11.05 · observed estimates
$8.79B → $9.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.78 | $8,793,961,058 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.78 | $8,793,961,058 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.02 | $8,790,209,660 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.78 | $8,796,294,392 | 5 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.79 | $8,905,045,103 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.79 | $8,904,872,812 | 6 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 6 / 11 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 11 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.93 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.96 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.05 | $9,068,891,885 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.05 | $9,069,866,483 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.05 | $9,069,866,483 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.05 | $9,069,866,483 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.05 | $9,069,866,483 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.05 | $9,069,866,483 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.05 | $9,069,866,483 | 6 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.05 | $9,069,866,483 | 6 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.