J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
$133.25+0.62%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SJM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 15 industry peers
SJM — COO transition
Dated 2026-03-03
President and Chief Operating Officer — John Brase: John Brase departed from the Company with a separation agreement and severance benefits.
Why it matters: Management raised its sales outlook after Q1. Sales above that range would show the improvement is lasting.
Supportive ifAt the Nov. 24 earnings report, FY27 net sales guidance is better than a 1% to 2% decline, or Q2 sales grow year over year.
Worry ifAt the Nov. 24 report, management cuts FY27 sales guidance below a 2% decline, or Q2 sales fall year over year.
Why it matters: Management named volume growth as a key goal. Q1 growth in these lines helped offset declines in other foods.
Supportive ifQ2 sales reports show positive volume and mix for both Uncrustables and coffee.
Worry ifQ2 volume and mix are negative for either Uncrustables or coffee.
Why it matters: The segment's Q1 sales fell 7%, with volume and mix down 8 points. A recovery would ease pressure on growth.
Supportive ifQ2 Sweet Baked Snacks sales are flat or higher year over year, with volume and mix no longer negative.
Worry ifQ2 Sweet Baked Snacks sales fall at least 7% year over year, or volume and mix fall by 8 points or more.
Why it matters: Pet Foods sales rose 1%, but segment profit fell 2%. Higher costs and marketing spend weighed on profit.
Supportive ifQ2 Pet Foods segment profit grows year over year, and its profit margin is above the Q1 level of 26.6%.
Worry ifQ2 Pet Foods segment profit falls year over year, or its margin is at or below 26.6%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$113 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $254 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,282 loss on $10,000 · 22.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.