J.M. Smucker Company (The) (SJM)
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$126.08-1.89%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SJM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SJM — COO transition
Dated 2026-03-03
President and Chief Operating Officer — John Brase: John Brase departed from the Company with a separation agreement and severance benefits.
Why it matters: A bigger drop would show more serious problems with pricing and sales. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 net sales decrease reported worse than -4%.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 net sales decrease reported better than -3%.
Why it matters: New leaders can change company plans and how it works. This affects performance.
Watch forGood updates or changes in plans can happen after the COO leaves.
Also watch forBad updates or delays in plans can happen after the COO leaves.
Why it matters: The acquisition could change market position. It may also affect growth in sweet baked goods.
Watch forManagement shares positive views on synergies. They see growth from the Hostess acquisition.
Also watch forManagement mentions challenges or integration issues. These could slow down growth.
Why it matters: Free cash flow below this level could show problems with cash and managing funds.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1 billion.
Less concerning ifFree cash flow reported above $1 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$126 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $264 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,282 loss on $10,000 · 22.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in key platforms shows the company's strategy is working.
Supportive ifOrganic volume growth reported above 2% in key platforms.
Worry ifOrganic volume growth reported below 0% in key platforms.
Why it matters: Net sales guidance shows what the company thinks about the market and consumer demand.
Worry ifNet sales guidance revised to a decrease of less than 3% for fiscal year 2027.
Less concerning ifNet sales guidance revised to a decrease greater than 4% for fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is important. It funds operations and helps return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifFree cash flow guidance rises above $1.1 billion. This shows strong cash generation.
Worry ifFree cash flow guidance drops below $1.0 billion. This signals possible cash flow problems.
Why it matters: Strong organic growth is important for long-term success. It can help make more money.
Supportive ifManagement says sales growth is improving in key product areas.
Worry ifManagement says there are still problems with organic volume growth.
Why it matters: The company wants to grow its sales. Success shows good plans and market interest.
Supportive ifOrganic volume growth reported at 2% or higher in fiscal year 2027.
Worry ifOrganic volume growth reported at 0% or negative for fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: The company has divested certain brands. This could impact net sales and overall growth.
Worry ifNet sales decrease by more than 4% year over year due to divestitures.
Less concerning ifNet sales stay steady or go up. This shows good management of sales.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows the company is improving sales. It helps boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported at or above 4% for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 3.5% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Free cash flow is crucial for funding operations and paying dividends. Meeting this target shows financial health.
Supportive ifFree cash flow reported at or above $1 billion for fiscal year 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow reported below $1 billion for fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it may benefit J.M. Smucker. This could improve overall performance.
Watch forSector revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: The Hostess purchase could improve market position and boost sales in sweet baked goods.
Watch forSales in the sweet baked goods category grow more than 5% after the acquisition.
Also watch forSales in the sweet baked goods category stay flat or drop after the acquisition.
Why it matters: An improvement in sector performance could boost J.M. Smucker's growth outlook.
Supportive ifSector performance gets better, showing good growth chances.
Worry ifSector performance keeps getting worse and stays in trouble.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could show a recovery in consumer staples.
Watch forConsumer staples sector revenue growth is above 0%.
Also watch forConsumer staples sector revenue growth is below -3%.
Why it matters: Maintaining CAPEX at this level is key for growth and investment. It shows commitment to future projects.
Supportive ifCAPEX reported at or above $325M for fiscal 2026.
Worry ifCAPEX reported below $325M for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: The company will keep spending at $325 million. Changes may affect growth and trust.
Worry ifSpending stays at or below $325 million for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifSpending goes over $325 million. This shows possible overspending.
Why it matters: The Hostess acquisition could boost growth in the sweet baked goods category, a key focus area.
Supportive ifThe company will share better financial numbers for the Hostess brands in its next call.
Worry ifThe company will report bad results from the Hostess brands or delays in integration.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating this EPS target shows management believes in earnings growth.
Supportive ifAdjusted earnings per share reported at $10.50 or higher in the next earnings release.
Worry ifAdjusted earnings per share were below $10.50.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows good management of pricing and volume during challenges.
Supportive ifNet sales decline reported at -1% to -2% year over year in the next earnings release.
Worry ifNet sales decline reported worse than -2% year over year.
Why it matters: Strong growth in key products like Uncrustables shows a good brand strategy.
Supportive ifManagement will report growth in Uncrustables and coffee in the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement will report no growth or a drop in organic volume for key products.