Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SM Energy Company (SM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.06-15.30%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
7.85 → 8.56 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital expenditure within $2.65-$2.85 billion | It maintains capital spending near $2.85 billion. | Intact | capex exceeds $2.85 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Narrowed full-year 2026 capital guidance to approximately $2.75 billion.” “1 • Generated operating cash flow of $1.1 billion; capital expenditures totaled $711 million, or $747 million before changes in accruals.” |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SM is an energy producer with a sector tailwind and robust earnings quality, but elevated risk and volatile management make this an execution-sensitive thesis. The thesis is intact, and the recent signal improved from mixed to mildly favorable.
The evidence describes SM as cheap versus peers, while the market setup is tagged as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is negative, but the evidence does not define its size in plain terms, so it is unclear how much room there is between expectations and results.
Near term, recent earnings beats and production guidance increases support the operating picture, while recent overall financial performance remains neutral. Management has actioned 95% of the Civitas synergy target and reaffirmed capital spending guidance, though these priorities are rated mixed; erratic earnings surprises and recent peer misses remain risks.
The multi-year view depends on completing merger integration, realizing the remaining synergies, and sustaining production growth within the stated guidance. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could preserve the sector tailwind; misses or lower guidance from those peers could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, SM’s thesis is intact but execution-sensitive: a cheap-versus-peers valuation and recent operating progress are balanced by elevated risk, volatile management, and dependence on sector conditions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve $375 million annualized synergy from Civitas merger | The company targets $375 million in merger synergies. | Intact | synergy actioned falls below $300 million by 2026-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Third quarter 2026 performance is summarized below: Integrate – • Actioned approximately $400 million of Merger run-rate synergies – twice the original $200 million target and $25 million greater than the revised $375 million target.” “NPV-10 of merger synergies increased to $2.0 billion from $1.8 billion.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Full-year 2026 production of 410-430 MBoe/d | SM Energy raised production guidance to 430 MBoe/d for 2026. | Intact | production falls below 410 MBoe/d in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$7.34 → $8.56 · observed estimates
$7.45B → $7.83B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $7.22 | $7,367,973,722 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-28 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-29 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $7.22 | $7,367,958,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $7.21 | $7,367,958,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $7.21 | $7,367,958,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-03 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-04 | $7.21 | $7,367,958,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $7.21 | $7,367,958,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $7.34 | $7,449,544,270 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-12 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $7.40 | $7,490,858,280 | 10 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $7.15 | $7,351,708,131 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $7.36 | $7,455,319,538 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $7.37 | $7,467,236,205 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $7.37 | $7,467,236,205 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $7.30 | $7,467,236,205 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $7.30 | $7,467,236,205 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $7.30 | $7,467,236,205 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $7.32 | $7,474,874,621 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $7.32 | $7,460,599,650 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $7.44 | $7,516,522,727 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $7.44 | $7,516,522,727 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $7.44 | $7,516,522,727 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $7.59 | $7,528,153,497 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $7.65 | $7,563,691,958 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $7.65 | $7,563,691,958 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $7.65 | $7,563,691,958 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $7.65 | $7,563,691,958 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $7.65 | $7,563,691,958 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $7.65 | $7,563,691,958 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $7.71 | $7,582,809,189 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $7.71 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $7.77 | $7,582,809,189 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $7.85 | $7,587,939,797 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $7.85 | $7,587,939,797 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $7.85 | $7,587,939,797 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $7.85 | $7,587,939,797 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $7.92 | $7,596,247,489 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $8.04 | $7,653,732,266 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $7.99 | $7,653,732,266 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $7.99 | $7,653,732,266 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $7.99 | $7,653,732,266 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $8.01 | $7,681,891,642 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $8.04 | $7,698,331,642 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $8.10 | $7,709,281,285 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $8.26 | $7,748,771,620 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $8.26 | $7,748,771,620 | 9 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $8.26 | $7,747,843,049 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $8.26 | $7,747,843,049 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $8.36 | $7,746,343,049 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $8.52 | $7,749,105,120 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $8.55 | $7,767,083,906 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $8.55 | $7,767,083,906 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $8.63 | $7,828,441,049 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $8.63 | $7,828,441,049 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $8.63 | $7,828,441,049 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $8.63 | $7,828,441,049 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $8.63 | $7,828,430,640 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $8.63 | $7,828,430,640 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $8.63 | $7,828,430,640 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $8.63 | $7,828,430,642 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $8.63 | $7,828,430,642 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $8.63 | $7,828,430,642 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $8.63 | $7,828,430,642 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $8.56 | $7,833,869,620 | 10 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 2 recorded
4 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.