SM Energy Company (SM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.44-3.09%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 26.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 37 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SM — M&A activity — Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement
Dated 2026-09-04
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On September 4, 2026, SM Energy Company (“ Company ”) paid $416,791,000 to redeem all of the aggregate principal amount outstanding of its 6.625% Senior Notes due 2027 (the “ 2027 Senior Notes ”), plus accrued and unpaid interest, pursuant to the terms of the Indenture, dated as of May 21, 2015 (the “ Base Indenture ”), by and between the Company and U.S. Bank National Association, (including its successor in interest, U.S. Bank Trust Company, N…
Why it matters: Reducing debt shows a focus on financial health and smart spending.
Supportive ifLook for news on debt payoffs over $100 million next quarter.
Worry ifNo further debt reduction actions announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping G&A expenses in check shows good cost management and helps profits.
Worry ifG&A expenses reported within the $230-$250 million range for 2026.
Less concerning ifG&A expenses exceed $250 million for 2026.
Why it matters: This sale is expected to improve cash flow and lower debt. This is key for future growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big rise in cash flow and liquidity after the sale.
Worry ifCash flow and liquidity do not get better after the sale.
Why it matters: Confirming dividend payments shows the company is stable. It shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement confirms the date and amount for the next dividend payment.
Worry ifManagement suspends or cuts the dividend. This signals financial trouble.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$188 on $10,000 · ±1.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $530 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,500 loss on $10,000 · 35.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising dividends shows strong cash flow and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase above $0.22 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifAnnouncement of a dividend cut or suspension in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing this redemption would show progress in paying off debt. It helps the balance sheet.
Supportive ifRedemption of all $819 million of 2026 Senior Notes is completed as planned on June 1, 2026.
Worry ifIf redemption is delayed or not done, it shows possible cash problems.
Why it matters: Hitting the $375 million synergy target shows the merger is successful. It also helps profits.
Supportive ifManagement says they will achieve 100% of the $375 million synergy target by year-end 2026.
Worry ifSynergies will be below 95% completion by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: This would confirm strong operational execution and support the raised production guidance. It is key for revenue growth.
Supportive ifSecond-half production averages 430 MBoe/d or more, including 238 MBbl/d of oil.
Worry ifProduction averages below 430 MBoe/d for the second half of 2026.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending while trying to grow.
Supportive ifFull-year spending is reported within the $2.65-$2.85 billion range.
Worry ifSpending goes over $2.85 billion for the full year.
Why it matters: Hitting the $375 million savings goal shows the Civitas merger is working well.
Supportive ifManagement says they will achieve 100% of the $375 million savings by year-end 2026.
Worry ifSavings are below 95% achieved by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Higher prices would help revenue and cash flow. This improves financial health.
Supportive ifQ2 oil prices are above $80 per Bbl. This shows strong market conditions.
Worry ifQ2 realized oil prices fall below $80 per Bbl, suggesting weaker pricing power.
Why it matters: Achieving the synergy target is key for SM's merger success and financial health.
Supportive if$375 million in annual savings has been reached. At least $300 million has been acted on.
Worry ifSynergy achievement is under $300 million. This shows there are problems with integration.
Why it matters: Better free cash flow shows good capital management. It also shows better efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow for Q2 2026 is higher than $20 million.
Worry ifAdjusted free cash flow for Q2 2026 is lower than $20 million.
Why it matters: Keeping production guidance shows the company is strong and working well after the merger.
Supportive ifQ3 production guidance remains between 430-440 MBoe/d.
Worry ifQ3 production guidance drops below 430 MBoe/d.
Why it matters: Hitting the $375 million synergy target shows the Civitas merger is working well.
Supportive ifManagement says all targeted synergies will be achieved by the end of 2026.
Worry ifLess than 100% of the targeted synergies are actioned by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Paying off the 2027 Senior Notes shows a focus on lowering debt and improving finances.
Supportive ifManagement confirms they fully paid off the $417 million 2027 Senior Notes.
Worry ifNo progress on redeeming the 2027 Senior Notes by year-end 2026.