SM Energy Company (SM)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
$29.63-4.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -43.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 12.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 27 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-11-03
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. In accordance with General Instruction B.2. of Form 8-K, the following information, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed filed for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (“ Exchange Act ”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information and exhibits be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, exce…
Why it matters: SM raised its second-half production range after strong first-half results. A Q3 result in range would support its operating plan.
Supportive ifThe Nov. 3 earnings report shows Q3 production of 435–440 MBoe/d or more, with oil near the guided 238 MBbl/d second-half pace.
Worry ifQ3 production falls below 435 MBoe/d, or oil production falls well short of the 238 MBbl/d second-half pace.
Why it matters: SM said it had actioned $355M of its savings target by Q2. Reaching the full target would show the merger plan is on track.
Supportive ifBy year-end 2026, SM reports the full $375M in annual savings actioned or in place.
Worry ifSM reports less than $375M in annual savings actioned by year-end, or pushes the target date past 2026.
Why it matters: SM used cash to redeem $417M of notes in September. Its Q3 results can show whether cash flow remains strong after that payment.
Watch forThe Nov. 3 report shows positive adjusted free cash flow after capital spending and reports no new material rise in net debt.
Also watch forThe Nov. 3 report shows negative adjusted free cash flow after capital spending or a material rise in net debt.
Why it matters: SM kept its full-year capital range at $2.65B–$2.85B while raising production. Spending above the range would weaken that plan.
Worry ifThe Nov. 3 report lifts full-year capital guidance above $2.85B or reports spending that puts the ceiling out of reach.
Less concerning ifSM keeps full-year capital guidance at $2.65B–$2.85B and reports spending in line with that range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $530 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,824 loss on $10,000 · 28.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.