Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Summit Midstream Corp. (SMC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.79-7.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.20 → 0.59 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA in range $225M to $265M in FY26 | Summit Midstream aims to stabilize with adjusted EBITDA between $225M and $265M in 2026. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $225 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-oriented energy infrastructure business, but its earnings quality is fragile and recent performance is weak. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with management priorities progressing but not yet fully proven.
SMC carries a durable valuation premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is slightly negative, suggesting expectations are a little ahead of the model’s outlook. The premium has risen recently, and the evidence describes it as justified rather than showing a full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and a turbulent sector.
Near term, earnings may remain uneven: SMC has had recent earnings beats, but performance still trails its industry cohort and earnings quality is fragile. Management has tightened 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance and reports progress on Williston Basin connections, while the Double E expansion remains a project to monitor with a targeted in-service date by the end of 2028.
The multi-year thesis depends on management delivering gathering growth and advancing the Double E expansion on schedule, while maintaining or improving guidance. Near-term conditions also depend on whether SMC avoids reversing its recent guidance increase and whether energy-sector bellwethers continue to report strong results and guidance.
Over the next one to three years, SMC’s setup combines a supportive sector backdrop and active growth projects with weak recent results and fragile earnings quality. Execution and guidance credibility remain the key tests of the long-term thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Summit Midstream Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $50 million and <= $70 million. |
| Broken |
| Capital expenditure exceeds $70 million or falls below $50 million in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $24.993M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $50 million and <= $70 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202624,993,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
EPS turns positive by FY27 | Analysts expect EPS to improve from negative in 2026 to positive in 2027. | Improving | EPS remains negative or below $1.20 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $0.11 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.20 per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20260.11 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.96 → $0.59 · observed estimates
$0.63B → $0.65B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.96 | $625,817,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.96 | $625,817,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.96 | $625,817,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.96 | $625,817,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.96 | $625,817,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.96 | $625,817,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.20 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.96 | $625,817,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.35 | $665,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.35 | $665,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.35 | $665,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.35 | $645,408,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.35 | $665,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.35 | $665,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.35 | $645,408,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.35 | $645,408,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.35 | $645,408,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.35 | $645,408,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.35 | $645,408,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.35 | $645,408,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.20 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.59 | $651,522,500 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.