Summit Midstream Corp. (SMC)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
$26.79-7.37%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas MidstreamSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -10.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 11 industry peers
SMC — capital allocation
Dated 2026-04-02
by reference. The Shares were issued in reliance on the exemption from registration requirements under the Securities Act, pursuant to Section 4(a)(2) thereof.
Why it matters: The higher spending plan funds growth projects, but it also uses cash. Compare reported spending with the range and track free cash flow.
Watch forThe company reports 2026 capital spending of $100 million to $120 million. It also reports positive free cash flow for the full year.
Also watch forThe company reports spending above $120 million or negative full-year free cash flow.
Why it matters: More connections can lift gathering volumes and support growth into 2027. The 30 added wells were not in the original plan.
Supportive ifThe next results show most of the 30 added Williston wells connected in Q4. Volumes or liquids throughput rise from Q3.
Worry ifFew of the 30 wells connect in Q4, or Williston volumes fall from Q3 despite six rigs running in Q2.
Why it matters: Piceance MVC payments added $4.2 million to Q2 adjusted EBITDA. Those commitments expire after Q3, so volumes matter more once that support ends.
Worry ifAfter Q3, Piceance throughput stays near or above Q2's 214 MMcf/d. The company reports no major loss in segment EBITDA.
Less concerning ifAfter Q3, Piceance throughput falls below 214 MMcf/d and segment EBITDA declines as MVC payments end.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$96 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $322 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,337 loss on $10,000 · 23.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.