Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.60-5.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 59.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 119.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMCI — dividend update
Dated 2026-11-03
Other Events On November 3, 2026, the Company announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend on the Company’s 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock”). The Board of Directors declared the cash dividend of $17.50 per share of Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, which is equivalent to $0.875 per depositary share. Each depositary share represents a 1/20th fractional interest in a share of Mandatory Convertible Prefe…
Why it matters: The company disclosed a board review tied to alleged export-control issues. A clear outcome could reduce uncertainty; new findings could add risk.
Watch forThe company says the review is complete and reports no major effect on its business or results.
Also watch forThe company reports new findings, charges, or business limits tied to the review.
Why it matters: The company said these orders would ship in future quarters. Shipping them would turn the large order total into sales.
Supportive ifRevenue in coming quarters shows that the company delivered Q4 FY2026 orders. No order cancellations were disclosed.
Worry ifThe company reports major delays or cancellations among Q4 orders. Or future revenue does not show delivery.
Why it matters: An outside CFO took over shortly before the earnings release. Clean final results would help clear up doubts about the early figures.
Watch forThe November 3 results confirm the early revenue and margin ranges. There are no major accounting changes.
Also watch forThe final results show a major change to revenue or margins. Or the company delays its report.
Why it matters: The preliminary margin range tops prior guidance. A final result in that range would extend the reported margin gains.
Supportive ifFinal Q1 gross margin is at least 12.0%.
Worry ifFinal Q1 gross margin is below 12.0%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$307 on $10,000 · ±3.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $794 loss on $10,000 · 7.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,669 loss on $10,000 · 56.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The preliminary range is far above prior guidance. Final results will show how much of the jump reached reported sales.
Supportive ifOn November 3, final Q1 revenue is at least $18.5 billion.
Worry ifFinal Q1 revenue is below $18.5 billion, or the company delays final results.