Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.59+4.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SMCI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -51.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 47.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 99.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SMCI — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-05
Other Events Supermicro today announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend on the Company’s 7.00% Series A Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock (the “Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock”). The Board of Directors declared the initial cash dividend of $14.7778 per share of Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock, which is equivalent to $0.73889 per depositary share. Each depositary share represents a 1/20th fractional interest in a share of Mandatory Convertible Preferred…
Why it matters: This financing is crucial to fulfill $39 billion in AI server orders. It shows Supermicro's ability to meet demand.
Supportive ifThe $5 billion common stock and $2 billion ATM offerings are complete.
Worry ifNot finishing the financing or big delays in the offerings.
Why it matters: The outcome may affect financial forecasts and how investors feel.
Watch forManagement shared good news. This means they have solved problems or faced little impact.
Also watch forManagement reports big issues or delays in the review process.
Why it matters: The Senior VP of Worldwide Sales is retiring. This may change sales strategies and how they are carried out.
Worry ifIf sales go up after the change, it shows strong leadership.
Less concerning ifIf sales performance goes down or stays the same after the transition, it is a bad sign.
Why it matters: Updates on the AI order backlog show how strong demand is. They also show revenue potential for future quarters.
Supportive ifNew customer commitments or increases in the AI order backlog are good signs.
Worry ifA reduction in the AI order backlog or cancellations of orders are bad signs.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$352 on $10,000 · ±3.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $783 loss on $10,000 · 7.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,501 loss on $10,000 · 65.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is key to reaching the $40 billion target for FY 2026. A drop below 10% signals trouble.
Worry ifQ1 FY 2026 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ1 FY 2026 revenue growth reported above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Expanding the order book is vital for future revenue growth. It signals demand for new products.
Supportive ifNew orders for Blackwell Ultra are higher than expected.
Worry ifNew orders for Blackwell Ultra fall short of expectations.
Why it matters: Cash flow is critical for funding growth. A stable cash flow shows financial health.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations improves from $6.6 billion in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations declines from $6.6 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Leadership changes can change company strategy and how stable it is.
Worry ifAppointment of a strong successor who can maintain sales momentum.
Less concerning ifMore big departures or no clear plan for succession.
Why it matters: Revenue at the low end of guidance may signal demand weakness. This could impact future growth expectations.
Worry ifQ4 fiscal 2026 revenue reported at $11 billion or lower.
Less concerning ifQ4 fiscal 2026 revenue exceeds $12 billion.
Why it matters: Higher margins show a strong product mix and good pricing. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifGAAP gross margins reported above 17% for Q4 fiscal 2026.
Worry ifGAAP gross margins fall below 15%.
Why it matters: Backlog growth means strong future demand and capacity. This supports revenue growth.
Supportive ifTotal backlog is over $60 billion.
Worry ifBacklog drops or does not grow much.
Why it matters: The review's outcome may change how the company operates. It could also impact investor trust after recent charges.
Worry ifManagement provides a positive update. This shows that there are no major issues.
Less concerning ifNegative findings or delays in the review process are reported.