Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
$29.60-5.70%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.35 → 6.31 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SMCI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage $7 billion capital raise without hurting growth | A supporting condition in Supermicro's published investment case. The stated target is Capital raise supports growth without margin erosion. | Improving | Capital raise causes revenue or margin decline below guidance | Op margin 13.4% vs 6.1% prior qtr; Rev $11.1B vs $10.2B Q4 earnings beat estimates with strong Q2 outlook; revenue and margins improved significantly quarter-over-quarter. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth business whose recent financial performance is strong, rather than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, but confidence is medium and execution remains uneven.
The valuation evidence describes SMCI as cheap versus peers, with a modest peer premium also reported; model confidence is low, so the comparison is uncertain. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in assessment says weak execution quality is recognized without a broader fragility discount.
Near term, reported revenue and operating income improved in the latest supplied quarter, and a recent earnings beat supports the strong-performance picture. However, the fiscal 2026 revenue commitment is not yet verified against full-year results, and specific DCBBS delivery is not demonstrated. A guidance cut, erratic earnings history, and CFO and CTO transitions remain execution risks.
The multi-year view hinges on delivering the fiscal 2026 revenue goal and showing specific progress in AI and datacenter infrastructure. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while easing rates or steadier results from major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on whether strong recent growth turns into reliable execution; the low peer valuation offers context, but does not remove the high business risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Sustain positive EPS near $0.72 in Q3 2026 |
| A primary condition in Supermicro's published investment case. The stated target is >= $0.65 per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $0.5 per share next quarter |
Diluted EPS: $1.68 per share FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.65 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 31, 20261.68 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain $13 billion Blackwell Ultra order book | The order book holds over $13 billion in Blackwell Ultra orders. | Intact | Order book falls below $10 billion | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve about $39.65 billion revenue in FY 2026 | Supermicro grows revenue to about $40 billion in 2026, driven by AI demand. | Broken | Revenue falls below $33 billion in FY 2026 | Revenue: $11.12B FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$39.65B. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 31, 202611,119,777,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.58 → $6.31 · observed estimates
$62.93B → $84.56B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.58 | $62,925,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.58 | $62,925,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.86 | $64,866,883,440 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 3 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.68 | $63,425,238,602 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 6 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 7 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,318 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 9 / 11 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.35 | $79,014,681,347 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.61 | $81,650,715,373 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.70 | $81,939,741,928 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.70 | $81,939,741,928 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.70 | $81,939,741,928 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.70 | $81,939,741,928 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.70 | $81,939,741,928 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.31 | $84,561,910,446 | 10 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.