Supermicro (SMCI)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
$39.59+4.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyComputer HardwareSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Sustain positive EPS near $0.72 in Q3 2026: EPS guidance $0.94 vs target $0.65.
Supermicro grows revenue to about $40 billion in 2026, driven by AI demand. The order book holds over $13 billion in Blackwell Ultra orders. EPS improved to $0.72 in Q3 2026, showing better profits. The company leads in AI and datacenter infrastructure.
The $7 billion capital raise may hurt growth and investor confidence. Management changes and legal issues raise risks. Profit margins and cash flow remain fragile amid market selloff.
The stock trades about 48% below our $51 fair value, reflecting a 55% revenue growth expectation. Our fair value is 28% above the Street median, indicating some optimism priced in. We see risk from funding needs and margin pressure.
Breaks if: Capital raise causes revenue or margin decline below guidance
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.5 per share next quarter
Order book falls below $10 billion
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The current thesis is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance, but it is tempered by management volatility and high risk factors.
The market currently prices SMCI as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite some fragility in execution quality. There is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for future earnings growth.
Fundamentals are likely to continue improving, as management is on track to meet its revenue targets and has shown gains in profitability. However, there is a risk of erratic earnings surprises, which could impact investor confidence in the near term.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including management's ability to maintain guidance and the performance of key sector peers. Additionally, changes in interest rates could significantly influence market sentiment and stock performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company is expanding its AI and datacenter leadership. It also maintained positive earnings guidance and improved profitability. There are no new threats noted.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Grow the order book and revenue contribution from Blackwell Ultra products as part of AI infrastructure expansion.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 5 quarters. Management repeatedly cites a $13 billion order book for Blackwell Ultra products. However, no specific revenue or margin milestones tied to Blackwell Ultra are disclosed, indicating recurring focus but limited detailed delivery evidence.
“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”
“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”
“With a rapidly expanding order book, including more than $13B in Blackwell Ultra orders.”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $33 billion in FY 2026
In the next 1 to 3 years, SMCI's performance will depend on effective management execution and favorable sector conditions. Not investment advice.