Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Southern Company (SO)
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
$93.12-0.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesRegulated ElectricSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.93 → 4.92 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 13 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 13 to 13; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain capital allocation flexibility with equity agreements | Profit margins remain stable and capital allocation improves with new equity agreements. | Intact | Loss of equity distribution agreements or capital constraints | 16 banks vs multiple News confirms SO signed an equity distribution agreement with 16 banks on 2026-06-13, reinforcing capital allocation flexibility. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a regulated utility business with a relatively low-risk profile, but its earnings quality is marked fragile. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent signals improved from mixed to mildly favorable, though performance still trails its industry cohort.
SO carries a durable premium, meaning investors appear to assign it a higher valuation than peers for perceived business durability. The premium is about 28% versus peers, while the expectations gap is small and the pricing signal is judged justified, not highly fragile.
Near term, revenue and earnings growth have supported management’s stated priorities, and a recent earnings beat helped improve the signal. Cash generation is uneven, and recent capital-allocation events add a concern; the estimated risk of a near-term miss is low, but the evidence notes peer misses and a deep miss in SO’s recent history.
The near-term downside case is a guidance cut on the next call, which could lead analysts to lower estimates. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on continued revenue and EPS growth and better cash-generation consistency. Fed rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could support the utility backdrop, while the evidence for those outcomes remains conditional.
For the next one to three years, SO has a still-active but watchful long-term thesis: growth metrics are improving, yet fragile earnings quality, uneven cash flow, and weaker relative performance remain important checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Southern Company grows earnings steadily with EPS near $4.30 in 2025. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $4.30 in FY2025 |
Diluted EPS: $1.03 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.30 EPS in FY2025. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 30, 20261.03 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99 Page 1 News Media Contact: Southern Company Media Relations 404-506-5333 or 1-866-506-5333 southerncompany.com Investor Relations Contact: Greg MacLeod 404-685-4194 gbmacleo@southernco.com April 30, 2026 Southern Company reports first-quarter 2026 earnings ATLANTA – Southern Company today reported first-quarter earnings of $1.4 billion, or $1.21 per share, in 2026 compared with earnings of $1.3 billion, or $1.21 per share, in the first quarter of 2025.” “Southern Company also reported full-year 2025 earnings of $4.3 billion, or $3.94 per share, compared with $4.4 billion, or $4.02 per share, in 2024.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Keep profit margins stable near current levels | Profit margins remain stable and capital allocation improves with new equity agreements. | Improving | Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels | Operating margin: 25.46% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near current levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Jul 30, 202625.455067 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 6% annually | A primary condition in Southern Company's published investment case. The stated target is >= 6% YoY revenue growth. | Broken | Revenue growth falls below 6% YoY next year | Revenue growth: 0.06% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 6% YoY revenue growth. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 20260.057364 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Document Exhibit 99 Page 1 News Media Contact: Southern Company Media Relations 404-506-5333 or 1-866-506-5333 southerncompany.com Investor Relations Contact: Greg MacLeod 404-685-4194 gbmacleo@southernco.com April 30, 2026 Southern Company reports first-quarter 2026 earnings ATLANTA – Southern Company today reported first-quarter earnings of $1.4 billion, or $1.21 per share, in 2026 compared with earnings of $1.3 billion, or $1.21 per share, in the first quarter of 2025.” “Southern Company also reported full-year 2025 earnings of $4.3 billion, or $3.94 per share, compared with $4.4 billion, or $4.02 per share, in 2024.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.92 → $4.92 · observed estimates
$32.44B → $32.40B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.92 | $32,442,242,282 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.92 | $32,769,083,110 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.92 | $32,769,083,110 | 22 / 17 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.93 | $32,422,141,935 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.93 | $32,422,141,935 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.92 | $32,807,463,310 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.92 | $32,807,463,310 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.92 | $32,807,463,310 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.92 | $32,418,588,306 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.92 | $32,807,463,310 | 23 / 16 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.92 | $32,742,932,060 | 22 / 16 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.92 | $32,799,165,289 | 23 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.92 | $32,799,165,289 | 23 / 17 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.92 | $32,799,165,289 | 23 / 17 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.92 | $32,379,807,056 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.93 | $32,461,264,260 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.93 | $32,461,264,260 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.93 | $32,446,094,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.93 | $32,449,694,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.93 | $32,449,694,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.93 | $32,449,694,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.93 | $32,449,694,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.93 | $32,449,694,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.93 | $32,449,694,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.93 | $32,449,694,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,847 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,847 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,847 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,847 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,849 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.93 | $32,449,494,847 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.93 | $32,379,183,699 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.93 | $32,379,183,699 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.93 | $32,379,183,699 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.93 | $32,379,183,699 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.93 | $32,379,183,699 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.93 | $32,379,183,699 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.93 | $32,379,183,699 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.93 | $32,379,172,680 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.93 | $32,391,367,803 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.93 | $32,395,883,371 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.93 | $32,395,445,871 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.93 | $32,394,938,621 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.93 | $32,394,938,621 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.93 | $32,394,938,621 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.93 | $32,394,938,621 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.93 | $32,395,137,140 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.93 | $32,390,355,890 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.93 | $32,390,039,812 | 13 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.92 | $32,398,530,455 | 14 / 14 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.92 | $32,398,530,455 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.92 | $32,480,376,108 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.92 | $32,480,376,108 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.92 | $32,480,376,108 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 13 / 12 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.92 | $32,398,520,086 | 13 / 12 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 13 Hold · 3 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.