Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$43.94+1.20%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.17 → 4.15 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPFI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
5 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Accelerate loan growth to mid-to-high single digits in 2026 | A primary condition in South Plains Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Loan growth >= 5% to 9% YoY in 2026. | Intact | Loan growth falls below 5% YoY in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SPFI is a regional bank with a measured growth thesis, rather than a clear turnaround or high-growth story. The long-term thesis is intact, while management execution is mixed: lending growth and acquisition integration show progress, but banker hiring is not yet proven.
Valuation is broadly aligned with the evidence and carries a modest premium to peers. The expectations gap is small, and no fragility signals are present, so the current setup does not point to unusually high market expectations.
Near term, recent earnings beats and 6.3% annualized loan growth support the business, while net income rose from the prior quarter as management reported continued Bank of Houston integration. The near-term risk of a miss is assessed as low, though SPFI’s smaller size and recent peer misses are cautions; a guidance cut or falling rates could weigh on fundamentals.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on continued lending growth in Texas and effective integration of Bank of Houston. It also hinges on rates and sector conditions: rate cuts are a stated risk, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from financial-sector peers would support momentum.
For the 1-3 year view, SPFI has a supported but execution-sensitive thesis, with loan growth and acquisition integration offset by rate and management risks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| South Plains Financial finished acquiring BOH Holdings in April 2026. |
| Intact |
| Acquisition not fully integrated or delays beyond 2026-Q2 |
Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $10 million stock repurchase program by early 2027 | The stock buyback plan aims to repurchase $10 million by early 2027. | Intact | Buyback program not executed or canceled by 2027-Q1 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain quarterly dividend at $0.17 per share | It keeps paying a $0.17 quarterly dividend. | Intact | Dividend falls below $0.17 per share in next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.18 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Quarterly dividend of $0.17 per share or higher. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 3, 20260.18 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Ensure smooth CEO transition with new CEO Cory T. Newsom | A primary condition in South Plains Financial, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Stable leadership and no major disruptions through 2026. | Intact | Leadership issues or disruptions arise from CEO transition | Qualitative: Transition executed, no disruption Cory Newsom appointed CEO in June 2026. Company beat earnings in Q2 and Q3 2026 and increased dividends. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.17 → $4.15 · observed estimates
$0.27B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.17 | $270,500,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.17 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.18 | $270,525,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.15 | $268,200,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.16 | $266,625,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.16 | $266,625,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.16 | $266,625,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.16 | $266,625,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.16 | $266,166,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.15 | $266,024,999 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.15 | $266,024,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.15 | $266,024,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.15 | $266,024,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.15 | $266,024,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.15 | $266,024,999 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.15 | $266,024,999 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 5 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.