South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$45.63+0.75%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPFI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 10.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.9 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
SPFI — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-17
Other Events. On July 16, 2026, the Company issued a press release announcing the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend of $0.18 per share on its outstanding common stock. The dividend will be paid on August 10, 2026 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on July 27, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release covering such announcement is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.3 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Why it matters: A smooth integration will strengthen South Plains' position in Texas and support growth.
Supportive ifManagement says the integration is going well. There are no big problems expected in future calls.
Worry ifThere are reports of problems with integration. Some customers may leave after the BOH acquisition.
Why it matters: This growth target is key for the company's expansion plans. It shows how well South Plains Financial is managing its lending activities.
Supportive ifLoan growth reaches at least 5% year over year in the next quarter.
Worry ifLoan growth remains below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth is key for long-term value. It shows if the bank can expand effectively.
Supportive ifLoans held for investment grow by at least 5% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifLoans held for investment grow less than 2% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: Revenue growth trends are easing. A drop below the median signals a slowdown.
Worry if3-year revenue growth falls below its median level.
Less concerning if3-year revenue growth remains above its median level.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$77 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $244 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,220 loss on $10,000 · 12.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this program shows good use of capital. It also shows management believes in the company's value.
Supportive ifThe company announces the repurchase of at least $5 million worth of shares by early 2027.
Worry ifIf there are no large share buybacks by early 2027, there could be money issues.
Why it matters: The CEO transition could change company strategy and impact performance. Investors need to understand the new vision.
Watch forThe new CEO outlines a clear growth strategy in a public statement.
Also watch forThe new CEO fails to communicate a clear vision or strategy.
Why it matters: A drop in net interest margin may mean less profit. This happens as competition for deposits grows.
Worry ifQ3 net interest margin falls below 4.00%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 4.00%.
Why it matters: A higher dividend would show strong finances. It would also show a promise to give cash to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend increase above $0.18 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company maintains the dividend at $0.18 or cuts it.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows the company is strong. It also promises to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company declares a quarterly dividend of $0.18 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company lowers the quarterly dividend below $0.18 per share for Q3 2026.