Simon Property Group (SPG)
NYSEReal EstateReit - RetailSnapshot 2026-07-07
$227.09+0.93%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Track SPG free→Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Simon Property Group is the largest U.S. mall owner with steady revenue growth. It raised Real Estate FFO guidance to $13.18 per share for 2026. The company maintains a strong profit margin with EPS guidance near $7.00. Share buybacks support shareholder returns.
Cash from operations fell sharply to $833 million in Q1 2026, showing weak cash flow. The stock trades at a high PE of 43.5, well above peers. Slower revenue growth and fragile quality risk margin pressure.
The price is about 41% above our fair value near $161, reflecting only 1% revenue growth. Our fair value is 23% below the Street median, indicating the market is overly optimistic on growth and margins.
Breaks if: Quarterly cash from operations falls below $700 million
The company focuses on maintaining strong cash flow from operations.
Standing thesis, reviewed periodically — not a price target or advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operations decreased from $1.2 billion in 2025-Q2 to $833 million in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in maintaining strong cash flow despite management's focus.
“Cash from operations was $833 million in 2026-Q1.”
“Cash from operations was $1.2 billion in 2025-Q4.”
“Cash from operations was $890 million in 2025-Q3.”
“Cash from operations was $1.2 billion in 2025-Q2.”
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $6.44 per share in 2026
Breaks if: Real Estate FFO guidance falls below $12.55 per share in 2026
The company aims to increase its Real Estate FFO guidance for the fiscal year.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Real Estate FFO guidance increased from a midpoint of $12.525 in 2025-Q2 to $13.175 in 2026-Q1. The trajectory is delivering on the stated priority with consistent upward revisions.
“The Company is increasing its outlook for Real Estate FFO to $13.10 to $13.25 per diluted share.”
“and Real Estate FFO to be within a range of $13.00 to $13.25 per diluted share for the year ending December 31, 2026.”
“The Company is increasing its outlook for Real Estate FFO to $12.60 to $12.70 per diluted share.”
“The Company is reaffirming its outlook for Real Estate FFO of $12.40 to $12.65 per diluted share.”
Breaks if: PE ratio rises above 50 without earnings growth