S&P Global (SPGI)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$443.51-1.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Data & Stock ExchangesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve adjusted EPS near $19.4 to $19.65 in 2026: FY26 EPS guidance $16.35-$16.60 vs target $19.40-$19.65.
S&P Global is growing revenue about 10% year over year, above its 6.3% to 8.3% target. Profit per share is rising steadily, with adjusted EPS expected near $19.5 in 2026. The company is completing its spin-off of the Mobility division, which simplifies operations and sharpens focus. Capital spending is disciplined, supporting growth without excess.
Revenue growth could slow below 6%, hurting earnings momentum. The spin-off may cause disruption or fail to unlock value. Rising competition and regulatory challenges could pressure margins and market share.
The stock trades about 33% above our fair value with analysts expecting flat revenue growth. Our view is more cautious on near-term growth and values the spin-off risks.
Breaks if: adjusted EPS falls below $19.4 in FY26
Deliver adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $19.40 to $19.65 for the full year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted diluted EPS grew from $17.83 in 2025 to guidance of $19.40 to $19.65 for 2026. GAAP diluted EPS guidance is $16.35 to $16.60. The trajectory is delivering growth consistent with management's stated EPS guidance.
“2026 guidance calls for diluted EPS of $16.35 to $16.60 (GAAP) and adjusted diluted EPS of $19.40 to $19.65.”
“2026 adjusted guidance calls for diluted EPS in the range of $19.40 to $19.65.”
“2026 adjusted guidance calls for diluted EPS in the range of $19.40 to $19.65.”
“Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $17.60 to $17.85.”
“Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $17.00 to $17.25.”
“Full-year 2025 adjusted diluted EPS guidance of $16.75 to $17.25.”
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $225M or falls below $215M significantly in FY26
Breaks if: Mobility division spin-off delayed beyond mid-2026
Execute the planned spin-off of the Mobility division into an independent public company to sharpen focus on core divisions and unlock shareholder value.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Management announced the intent to separate the Mobility division in 2025-Q1, with the spin-off completed July 1, 2026 (2026-Q2). The separation is expected within 12-18 months from announcement. The company has delivered on this priority with the spin-off executed on schedule, matching management's stated timeline.
“The Company completed the spin-off of its Mobility division on July 1, 2026.”
“The Company remains on track with the previously announced planned separation of its Mobility division.”
“2026 GAAP guidance to be provided upon completion of the Mobility spin (expected mid-2026).”
“The previously announced spin of the Mobility division into a separate public company remains on track.”
“The Company remains on track with the previously announced planned separation of its Mobility division.”
“The Company announced its intent to separate its Mobility division into a standalone public company.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 6.3% in FY26
Deliver reported revenue growth in the range of 6.3% to 8.3% for the full year 2026, excluding Mobility.
Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.777B in 2025-Q1 to $4.171B in 2026-Q1, a 10% increase year over year. The 2026 guidance calls for reported revenue growth of 6.3% to 8.3%. The trajectory shows delivering growth consistent with management's stated guidance.
“2026 guidance calls for revenue growth of 5.9% to 7.9%, excluding Mobility.”
“2026 guidance now calls for reported revenue growth of 6.3% to 8.3%.”
“2026 adjusted guidance calls for organic constant currency revenue growth of 6.0% to 8.0%.”
“Full-year 2025 guidance calls for revenue growth of 7% - 8%.”
“Full-year 2025 guidance calls for revenue growth of 5% - 7%.”
“Full-year 2025 guidance calls for revenue growth of 4% - 6%.”
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady revenue growth. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent performance has shown some volatility despite a generally favorable sector backdrop.
The market appears to be pricing in a premium compared to peers, reflecting a durable premium. However, there is an expectations gap, indicating that investors may be anticipating stronger performance than what has been delivered recently.
Management is on track to achieve revenue growth and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) targets for 2026. However, the recent financial performance has shown signs of slipping, which could impact future results.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like CME, ICE, and MCO, which could influence SPGI's trajectory. Additionally, any changes in guidance from management could have significant implications for investor sentiment.
Overall, SPGI's outlook remains mixed, with strong growth targets but recent performance concerns. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation fell by 10.2 points (from 36.1 to 25.9).
Yes, our read has strengthened. S&P Global reported a strong earnings beat. The company raised its full-year earnings-per-share guidance. It also plans to separate its Mobility division by mid-2026. Revenue growth is expected between 6.3% and 8.3% in 2026. These factors support a more positive outlook for the company.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.