Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$108.85+3.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPHR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash flow from operations remains strong and growing | Cash from operations surged from $6.35M to $136.24M, showing strong cash flow progress. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $130M next year | Cash from operations: $-33.658M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Cash from operations >= $130M annually. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026-33,658,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a venue-expansion and execution story, rather than a proven steady compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: management priorities are progressing, but recent financial performance is weak and trails the industry cohort.
SPHR carries a durable premium versus peers, while the valuation evidence labels that premium justified. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are ahead of what the model supports; the evidence does not show that the premium is fragile.
Over the multi-year view, venue growth and improved operating income and cash generation support further business progress if management continues executing. Near term, risk is elevated and earnings have been erratic despite recent earnings beats, so guidance and results remain important checks.
The thesis hinges on continued growth at existing venues and successful expansion plans for Abu Dhabi and National Harbor. Near term, a guidance cut would be a negative signal, while rate cuts or stronger results and guidance from sector peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SPHR has a credible growth plan and evidence of improving cash generation, but weak relative performance, elevated risk, and a premium valuation leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased significantly from $6.7M in 2025-Q2 to $136.2M in 2026-Q3, demonstrating improved cash flow generation. The trajectory is delivering on enhancing cash flow from operations.
Operating income improves toward sustained profitability | Operating income turned positive, improving from a loss of $78.6M to a gain of $7.2M. | Improving | Operating income falls back below zero next year | Operating income: $-61.262M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: Operating income positive or improving. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Jul 30, 2026-61,262,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue growth at or above 7% annually | A primary condition in Sphere Entertainment's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 10.95% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Jul 30, 202610.953137 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.77 → $-1.77 · observed estimates
$1.42B → $1.42B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.77 | $1,424,234,734 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 5 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.