Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$142.42-0.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPHR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 0.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
SPHR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-02-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 29, 2026, MSG Las Vegas, LLC (“MSG LV”), an indirect, wholly-owned subsidiary of Sphere Entertainment Co. (the “Company”), entered into a credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent and L/C Issuer, and the lenders party thereto, providing for (i) a $275 million senior secured term loan facility (the “Term Loan Facility”) to refinance the existing term loan and (ii) a senior secured revolving credit facility in…
Why it matters: Growth in adjusted operating income shows that revenue plans and cost control are working.
Supportive ifAdjusted operating income for Q3 is more than $110 million.
Worry ifAdjusted operating income for Q3 is less than $100 million.
Why it matters: Strong ticket sales for Metallica show that people want Sphere events.
Supportive ifMetallica's concert residency sells more than 80% of tickets in the first month.
Worry ifMetallica's residency sells less than 50% of tickets in the first month.
Why it matters: New venue announcements support Sphere's growth plans. This matches management's goal to increase revenue.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of at least one new Sphere venue in a major market.
Worry ifNo new venue announcements in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Lower revenue growth means management may face challenges in reaching their growth goals.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: New venue announcements show that Sphere is growing globally. This could lead to more money.
Supportive ifThere are new Sphere venues in Abu Dhabi and National Harbor. These are official announcements.
Worry ifNo announcements regarding new venues by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing Sphere Abu Dhabi is important for the company. It helps grow global presence and revenue.
Supportive ifSphere Abu Dhabi will announce or finish construction milestones by the end of 2026.
Worry ifDelays or problems in construction for Sphere Abu Dhabi are reported.
Why it matters: More concert money would show that Sphere's business works and raise total income.
Supportive ifRevenue from concert residencies exceeds $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifConcert residency revenue falls below $30 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth signals the success of Sphere's business model and expansion plans.
Supportive ifQ2 Sphere segment revenue growth exceeds 60% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 Sphere segment revenue growth falls below 40% year over year.
Why it matters: Completion of the Abu Dhabi venue by 2029 is key for global expansion plans.
Supportive ifLook for news on construction milestones or partnerships for Sphere Abu Dhabi.
Worry ifWatch for delays in construction news or problems with the Abu Dhabi project.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow shows good management. It also helps with future growth plans.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $100 million in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $50 million in Q2.
Why it matters: Falling revenues in MSG Networks could hurt overall finances and growth.
Worry ifMSG Networks revenue declines exceed 10% year over year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifMSG Networks revenue stabilizes or grows year over year.
Why it matters: Growth in sponsorship money shows strong demand for Sphere's ads. This is a good sign.
Supportive ifSponsorship revenue growth exceeds 15% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifSponsorship revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong ticket sales will help revenue grow and show the Sphere business model works.
Supportive ifTicket sales for The Wizard of Oz exceed $500 million or reach over 3.5 million tickets sold.
Worry ifTicket sales for The Wizard of Oz decline or stagnate below current levels.
Why it matters: New sponsorships will enhance revenue and support Sphere's growth strategy.
Supportive ifNew multi-year sponsorship deals with major brands will be announced.
Worry ifNo new sponsorship agreements announced in the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$250 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $434 loss on $10,000 · 4.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,442 loss on $10,000 · 24.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.