Sphere Entertainment (SPHR)
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$108.85+3.62%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · SPHR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 35.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
SPHR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-02-03
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On January 29, 2026, MSG Las Vegas, LLC (“MSG LV”), an indirect, wholly-owned subsidiary of Sphere Entertainment Co. (the “Company”), entered into a credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as Administrative Agent and L/C Issuer, and the lenders party thereto, providing for (i) a $275 million senior secured term loan facility (the “Term Loan Facility”) to refinance the existing term loan and (ii) a senior secured revolving credit facility in…
Why it matters: MSG Networks subscribers fell about 16.5% in Q2, while segment revenue fell 18%. Another drop could add pressure to results.
Worry ifQ3 MSG Networks subscribers fall more than 16.5% year over year, or segment revenue falls more than 18%.
Less concerning ifQ3 MSG Networks subscriber losses are less than 16.5%, and segment revenue falls less than 18% or grows.
Why it matters: The show passed $400 million in ticket sales and sold over three million tickets. A continued rise would support Sphere's current Las Vegas growth.
Supportive ifA company update reports more than $400 million in sales and over three million tickets. Both figures are rising.
Worry ifA company update says ticket sales or tickets sold were below earlier totals.
Why it matters: Construction is set to finish by the end of 2029. A clear build update would show progress on the global venue plan.
Supportive ifA company or Abu Dhabi project update confirms construction has started. It still aims to finish by the end of 2029.
Worry ifA company or project update says construction has not begun, or completion moves past the end of 2029.
Why it matters: Sphere revenue rose 29% in Q2, but adjusted operating income fell 17% company-wide. Q3 results test whether Sphere's growth can lift profit.
Watch forOn Nov. 3, Q3 Sphere revenue grows year over year and adjusted operating income exceeds $50.9 million.
Also watch forOn Nov. 3, Sphere revenue falls year over year, or adjusted operating income is below $50.9 million.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$242 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $444 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,191 loss on $10,000 · 41.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The 24 concerts are planned to start in October 2026. Show count and results can test demand for Sphere concerts.
Supportive ifThe company says Metallica started the residency in October. It held all 24 planned concerts.
Worry ifThe company says the residency was delayed or canceled. Or it had fewer than 24 concerts.
Why it matters: The new deal extends the partnership through 2030. Future reports can show whether this partnership adds sponsorship or event revenue.
Supportive ifA company report names new Grand Prix sponsorship or event revenue under the deal.
Worry ifA company report says the deal ended early. Or later results show the partnership added no revenue.