Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
SiriusPoint Ltd. (SPNT)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-11-04
$25.82+0.08%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - ReinsuranceSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.78 → 2.78 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SPNT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
grow diluted book value per share | The company plans to grow book value per share. | Under Pressure | book value per share declines year over year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SPNT is an insurance earnings and book value growth story, with recent results showing strong performance. Its multi-year view is intact, although earnings quality and management are assessed as neutral and the CEO transition adds uncertainty.
The valuation is assessed as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and market expectations broadly aligned with the evidence. Priced-in fragility is low, so the current setup does not show a high degree of market vulnerability from expectations.
Over the multi-year view, the recent direction is constructive: first-half 2026 underwriting income and operating earnings per share increased year over year, while the core combined ratio improved. Near term, the miss risk is assessed as low, but recent industry misses and SPNT’s history of a deep miss remain cautions; another guidance cut would be a meaningful negative.
The thesis depends on continued improvement in underwriting earnings quality, book value per share, and operating earnings per share. A shift toward rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year view remains intact, with strong recent financial performance and an inexpensive peer valuation balanced against moderate risk and uncertainty around rates, guidance, and the CEO transition. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The company plans to grow book value per share. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $2.0 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.58 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=2.55 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 20260.58 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
improve underwriting earnings quality | SiriusPoint aims to improve underwriting earnings quality. | Improving | underwriting earnings quality worsens materially | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.77 → $2.78 · observed estimates
$3.28B → $3.22B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.77 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.77 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.77 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.77 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.77 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.77 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.77 | $3,364,315,075 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.78 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.78 | $3,276,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.79 | $3,270,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.79 | $3,270,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.76 | $3,262,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.76 | $3,262,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.76 | $3,262,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.76 | $3,262,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.76 | $3,262,650,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.78 | $3,336,815,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.79 | $3,321,690,063 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.78 | $3,244,352,051 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.78 | $3,234,944,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.78 | $3,234,944,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.78 | $3,234,944,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.78 | $3,234,944,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.78 | $3,234,944,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.78 | $3,234,944,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.78 | $3,219,244,893 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.