Sempra (SRE)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$84.04-0.63%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Recent financial performance slipped notably this past month, though still top-half.
Sempra grows earnings steadily with EPS guided to $5.3 in 2026 and $5.7 in 2027. New LNG projects boost long-term growth. Profit margins remain stable and the company has a strong energy infrastructure. Debt issuances support expansion without hurting credit.
Revenue missed recently and guidance was cut, raising doubts on growth. Litigation risks and volatile management may pressure earnings. The stock trades expensive relative to peers with negative free cash flow yield.
The price sits about 2% above our fair value near $93, reflecting modest 2% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is 12% below the Street median, indicating some caution versus consensus optimism.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $4.8 in FY26 or below $5.1 in FY27
Breaks if: Delays or failures in LNG project startups or production
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a long-term thesis on a utility company with a significant capital plan. The current state is mixed, with some volatility in management and sector headwinds impacting performance.
The market appears to have priced in a low level of execution quality and a turbulent sector environment. SRE is viewed as relatively cheap compared to its peers, but there is a slight expectations gap indicating that the market is cautious.
Fundamentals are likely to remain stable, as management continues to execute its capital plan. However, the mixed reaffirmation of earnings guidance suggests some uncertainty in achieving targets.
The thesis hinges on the ability of management to maintain guidance and execute on the capital plan. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve rate decisions and performance of sector peers will be crucial.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports a positive outlook. Additionally, securing a partnership with Saudi Aramco for a $65 billion capital plan reinforces growth potential. There are no new threats impacting the thesis at this time.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: Significant management turnover or strategy reversal
Breaks if: Revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SRE's performance will depend on management's execution and broader market conditions. Not investment advice.