Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Sempra (SRE)
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$82.90-2.88%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesDiversified UtilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.53 → 5.53 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for SRE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS grows to at least $5.3 in FY26 and $5.7 in FY27 | Sempra grows earnings steadily with EPS guided to $5.3 in 2026 and $5.7 in 2027. | Intact | EPS falls below $4.8 in FY26 or below $5.1 in FY27 | Diluted EPS: $1.21 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $5.3 FY26, >= $5.7 FY27. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20261.21 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
SRE is a regulated utility growth story, with a large planned investment program as its main growth engine. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence has eased from high to medium and management execution is rated volatile.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure describes SRE as cheap versus peers, while another shows a sizable peer premium, and the expectations gap is negative. Overall, the snapshot rates value as expensive, with no sign that current expectations are especially fragile.
Near term, management has kept its 2026 and 2027 earnings guidance ranges in place, while capital spending has tracked the stated plan. Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings surprise trends are weakening despite a low estimated chance of a miss. A guidance cut would be a meaningful setback.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on Sempra continuing to deliver its 2026-2030 capital plan and support its earnings guidance. Federal Reserve rate cuts and continued strong results from other utilities could help the sector backdrop, while lower guidance or weaker execution would weigh on the case.
For the next one to three years, SRE’s multi-year thesis rests on steady execution of its utility investment plan, but the mixed valuation signals and softer earnings-surprise trend leave meaningful execution questions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Sempra affirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range of $4.80 to $5.30 consistently, with reported diluted EPS of $1.58 in 2026-Q1 and $1.21 in 2026-Q2. The trajectory shows stable reaffirmation of guidance with reported quarterly EPS supporting the target range, indicating delivery on this priority.
Successful LNG project starts and production ramp | A primary condition in Sempra's published investment case. The stated target is Sustain LNG production ramp and new project completions. | Intact | Delays or failures in LNG project startups or production | Qualitative: 2 successful LNG starts (Jun 2026) vs target of sustained ramp SRE successfully started LNG production at ECA Phase 1 and a new Mexico export plant in June 2026, reinforcing the competitive moat. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stable management and execution of strategy | A supporting condition in Sempra's published investment case. The stated target is No major management disruptions or strategy shifts. | Intact | Significant management turnover or strategy reversal | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 2% in FY26 | A supporting condition in Sempra's published investment case. The stated target is >= 2% YoY revenue growth FY26. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 0% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 3.67% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 2% YoY revenue growth FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 20263.666667 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.52 → $5.53 · observed estimates
$13.47B → $13.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.52 | $13,466,038,316 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.54 | $13,920,402,000 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.54 | $13,882,386,610 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.54 | $13,882,386,610 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.54 | $13,882,386,610 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.54 | $13,882,386,610 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.54 | $13,882,386,610 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.54 | $13,882,386,610 | 17 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.53 | $13,719,466,000 | 18 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.52 | $13,428,021,225 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.52 | $13,399,964,517 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.52 | $13,502,747,236 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.52 | $13,399,997,448 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.52 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.53 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.53 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.53 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.53 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.53 | $13,390,142,985 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.53 | $13,368,805,560 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.53 | $13,368,805,560 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.53 | $13,368,805,560 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.53 | $13,368,805,560 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.53 | $13,368,344,022 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.53 | $13,365,113,253 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.53 | $13,367,512,558 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.53 | $13,367,513,253 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.53 | $13,381,250,953 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.53 | $13,362,803,953 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.53 | $13,362,803,953 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.53 | $13,362,803,953 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.53 | $13,362,803,953 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.53 | $13,362,803,953 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.53 | $13,362,770,984 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.53 | $13,360,852,974 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.53 | $13,356,606,675 | 11 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 17 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 3 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.