Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
State Street Corporation (STT)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$173.41+2.18%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
15.42 → 15.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for STT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Assets under management increase at least 7% per year | Assets under management rose 20%. | Intact | AUM growth falls below 7% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
STT is a financial services business with a growth-and-capital-return profile, rather than a clear turnaround. The long-term thesis is intact, but execution quality is fragile and management signals are volatile.
The valuation evidence points to STT being cheap versus peers, with expectations slightly below the model’s baseline. The market appears to give limited weight to execution fragility, while the overall priced-in assessment is described as justified rather than broadly fragile.
Near term, recent results are strong: third-quarter revenue grew 13% year over year, with record servicing and management fees, while expenses rose 8%. Management is on track with fee growth, expense discipline, and capital returns, but momentum has weakened and the evidence flags fragile earnings quality; the stated chance of a near-term miss is low.
A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, and rate cuts from the current 3.88% could weigh on the financial sector. Continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers such as BLK, BX, and KKR would support sector momentum, while expense growth and the recent decline in company momentum remain important signals to watch.
For the next one to three years, STT’s case rests on sustaining fee growth and expense discipline despite fragile earnings quality and weaker momentum. The thesis remains intact, but guidance, rates, and sector earnings are key swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in State Street Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is <=10% YoY expense growth. |
| Intact |
| Expense growth exceeds 10% next year |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Total revenue grows at least 7% per year | A primary condition in State Street Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 7% next year | Revenue growth: 12.95% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY revenue growth. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Oct 28, 202612.947814 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$15.16 → $15.51 · observed estimates
$16.61B → $16.84B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $15.25 | $16,688,382,610 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $15.25 | $16,688,382,610 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $15.25 | $16,688,382,610 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $15.25 | $16,688,382,610 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $15.30 | $16,716,717,150 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $15.30 | $16,716,717,150 | 14 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $15.16 | $16,611,877,032 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $15.24 | $16,657,540,465 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $15.25 | $16,661,208,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $15.25 | $16,669,708,949 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $15.26 | $16,669,317,577 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $15.26 | $16,669,317,577 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $15.26 | $16,669,317,577 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $15.26 | $16,669,317,577 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $15.30 | $16,684,895,470 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $15.30 | $16,684,895,470 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $15.33 | $16,697,645,470 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $15.36 | $16,723,372,365 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $15.42 | $16,794,889,963 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $15.42 | $16,794,889,963 | 10 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $15.42 | $16,811,102,241 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $15.46 | $16,812,940,530 | 11 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $15.46 | $16,812,940,530 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $15.46 | $16,812,940,530 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $15.46 | $16,812,940,530 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $15.46 | $16,812,940,530 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $15.46 | $16,812,940,530 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $15.46 | $16,812,940,530 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $15.48 | $16,826,546,102 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $15.47 | $16,816,699,948 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $15.47 | $16,816,699,948 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $15.52 | $16,832,156,372 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $15.52 | $16,832,156,372 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 12 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $15.48 | $16,821,982,994 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $15.48 | $16,829,398,245 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $15.48 | $16,829,398,245 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $15.48 | $16,829,398,245 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $15.51 | $16,842,617,930 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $15.51 | $16,842,617,930 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $15.51 | $16,842,617,930 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $15.51 | $16,842,617,930 | 11 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $15.51 | $16,842,617,930 | 11 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
1 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.